Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:55:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd2a…ef73 other 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 618d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$27 (-0%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate20%10W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 82% −$15
other 14% −$1
crypto 2% +$1
sports 2% −$13
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 +4.0% -5.9% 13% 7% -7.7%
≤90d 37 -9.5% -18.1% 19% 8% -10.7%
all 50 -7.3% -16.1% 20% 6% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 6% -10.0%
10% -24.2% 6% -18.6%
15% -31.5% 6% -26.5%
20% -38.2% 6% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

618d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses10 / 40
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)50 / 52
History coverage618d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $130 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? No 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $13 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $6 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $11 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 18 $49 $0 -0%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 18 $7 +$4 +62%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $85 $0 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $49 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $54 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $161 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $50 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $53 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $54 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $51 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $49 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $55 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $10 +$6 +62%
Bucks vs. Nets Apr 08 $7 +$9 +124%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of March? Apr 06 $32 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? Mar 27 $8 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 27 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in February? Mar 05 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Solana reach $210 in January? Feb 13 $29 $0 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $24 $0 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 14 $1 $0 -9%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 05 $15 $0 -3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $8 $0 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $20 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 11 $168 −$1 -1%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 31 $1,378 −$8 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 28 $1,166 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 27 $1,737 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $11 1h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $6 21h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6 23h
Will Solana reach $130 in June? BUY No 99¢ $31 24h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 3d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 3d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 4d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 4d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $6 5d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6 5d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $8 7d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $8 8d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $10 12d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $11 12d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 12d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $10 17d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 23d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Solana reach $140 in May? BUY No 100¢ $22 24d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $49 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.62 · official $41.62 (match) · 321 history records