Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:35:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd29…4028 crypto 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (68 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$133 (-15%) realized −$133 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%25W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day68.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$259
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (68 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-34.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -28.1% -34.9% 41% 38% -41.3%
≤30d 61 -28.1% -34.9% 41% 38% -41.3%
≤90d 61 -28.1% -34.9% 41% 38% -41.3%
all 61 -28.1% -34.9% 41% 38% -41.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.9% 38% -41.3%
10% ← realistic here -41.2% 34% -46.9%
15% -46.8% 30% -52.1%
20% -52.1% 20% -56.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$12 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$133
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses25 / 36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)61 / 61
History coverage2d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day68.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 61 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 20 $12 +$6 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 20 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 20 $62 +$23 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 20 $27 −$6 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$18 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 20 $41 −$5 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 20 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 20 $16 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$25 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 18 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $13 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$16 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$16 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $7 +$4 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$4 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 194 history records