Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:57:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd26…0197 other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 736d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$86 (-10%) realized −$96 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%14W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$374now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$18
14 days−$31
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$74
sports 7% −$2
crypto 3% −$14
world 1% +$1
politics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -14.3% -22.4% 38% 38% -17.3%
≤30d 19 -14.2% -22.4% 37% 37% -21.8%
≤90d 22 -20.7% -28.2% 36% 36% -19.7%
all 35 -17.1% -25.0% 40% 37% -28.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.0% 37% -28.9%
10% -32.1% 29% -35.7%
15% -38.7% 23% -41.9%
20% -44.7% 17% -47.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

736d coverage
Net worth$374
Realized−$96
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses14 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)35 / 45
History coverage736d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $147 $122 −$25 (-17%)
Surf FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 68¢ 84¢ $69 $85 +$16 (+24%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $42 $59 +$17 (+40%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $38 $39 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $11 $13 +$1 (+13%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $12 +$1 (+11%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-24%)
Surf FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 20¢ 38¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+90%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $35 +$15 +44%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $34 +$16 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$15 +312%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$14 +262%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $19 +$11 +61%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $59 −$48 -80%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$7 +158%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Wichita State Shockers vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane Mar 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Utah State Aggies vs. Arizona Wildcats Mar 23 $28 +$4 +16%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 09 $74 −$1 -1%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $29 −$29 -100%
Infinex FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jan 06 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Infinex launch a token in 2025? Jan 06 $33 +$5 +15%
Will Sentient launch a token in 2025? Nov 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 10PM ET Nov 07 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 1AM ET Nov 04 $4 +$1 +22%
Meteora FDV above $500M one day after launch? Nov 04 $4 $0 +4%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 19 $0 $0 +75%
Solana above $245 on December 6? Nov 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Biden drops out of presidential race? Nov 06 $0 $0 +317%
NVIDIA largest company before June 15? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will France win the 2024 Euros? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $32 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $39 8h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 15h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 15h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $35 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $34 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $11 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 4d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $20 4d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $19 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $29 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $15 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 7d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $16 17d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $19 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $374.30 · official $374.30 (match) · 131 history records