Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:42:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BD
0xbd22…d3b0
sports · 303 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$129 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$135 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized+$135
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses202 / 99
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions2
Markets (closed)301 / 303
History coverage599d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 2 History 301 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$124
7 days−$360
14 days−$310
30 days−$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump's tie be red? Yes 58¢ 55¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-6%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner KT Rolster 32¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner T1 28¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 36¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Weibo Gaming Youth Team 60¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Legacy 35¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Overwatch: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - OCS China Stage 2 Seeding Jun 13 $4 +$4 +83%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -91%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $6 +$3 +54%
Overwatch: Poker Face vs Falcons (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage Jun 13 $68 +$4 +6%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $24 +$6 +27%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +48%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $25 −$4 -15%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $5 −$2 -50%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$4 +83%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $118 +$3 +3%
Overwatch: Cheeseburger vs SuperBad - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $64 +$20 +31%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $7 +$3 +34%
Overwatch: Cheeseburger vs SuperBad (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group St Jun 12 $46 +$7 +16%
Overwatch: Cheeseburger vs SuperBad - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $31 +$9 +30%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $68 +$1 +1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $106 +$44 +42%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $26 +$12 +46%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $20 +$10 +54%
Overwatch: MENG GONG 3 vs SHENGSHI Esports (BO3) - OCS Pacific Stage 2 Jun 11 $85 +$6 +7%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $26 +$4 +18%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $12 +$1 +11%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $125 +$13 +10%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters G Jun 11 $18 −$15 -85%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $38 −$23 -60%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 10 $9 $0 +4%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs South America Rejects (BO5) - DreamLeague Divi Jun 10 $9 +$1 +11%
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 10 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 10 $10 $0 +5%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: T1 vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Jaqueline Amorim (Women's Straww Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Song Yadong win by KO or TKO? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 84% +$215
other 5% +$47
crypto 4% +$18
weather 3% +$3
world 2% −$106
politics 2% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 32¢ $6 34m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 94¢ $19 40m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 42¢ $4 51m
Overwatch: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - OCS China Stage 2 Seeding SELL JD Gaming 100¢ $8 53m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 72¢ $7 1h
Overwatch: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - OCS China Stage 2 Seeding BUY JD Gaming 54¢ $4 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster 1¢ $0 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 11¢ $1 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $10 2h
Overwatch: Poker Face vs Falcons (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage SELL Falcons 100¢ $72 2h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 65¢ $2 3h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 65¢ $5 3h
Overwatch: Poker Face vs Falcons (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage BUY Falcons 92¢ $6 4h
Overwatch: Poker Face vs Falcons (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage BUY Falcons 94¢ $61 4h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $30 12h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $24 13h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 37¢ $7 14h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 14h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $20 16h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 68¢ $14 16h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 36¢ $4 16h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 76¢ $6 16h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 76¢ $2 16h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 74¢ $7 17h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Team Falcons 24¢ $2 17h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $5 17h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 90¢ $9 21h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 49¢ $4 22h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 49¢ $1 22h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $120 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -49.3% -54.1% 35% 23% -25.9%
≤30d 185 -10.2% -18.7% 56% 46% -13.1%
≤90d 300 +4.1% -5.8% 67% 51% -7.1%
all 301 +4.1% -5.8% 67% 51% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 51% -7.1%
10% -14.9% 38% -16.0%
15% -23.1% 29% -24.1%
20% -30.6% 22% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.46 · official $5.46 (match) · 853 history records