Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:31:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BD
0xbd21…1582
other · 8 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$424 -46%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$42 · open −$320
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$48
Realized−$42
Unrealized−$320
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage6d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%
Chart Positions 3 History 5 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$42
14 days−$42
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 16¢ $353 $33 −$320 (-91%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $102 −$42 -41%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $2 $0 -4%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $3 $0 -4%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 07 $6 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 97% −$362
other 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 43¢ $10 22h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 22h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $15 22h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $47 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $10 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 11¢ $49 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 28¢ $95 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 23¢ $2 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 21¢ $283 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 32¢ $18 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 33¢ $43 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 53¢ $102 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 42¢ $126 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 42¢ $30 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 42¢ $15 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 42¢ $1 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 42¢ $4 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 37¢ $150 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 37¢ $5 5d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 65¢ $2 5d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 54¢ $3 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 37¢ $1 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 37¢ $192 5d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 6d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 6d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 83¢ $6 6d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 31¢ $38 6d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 84¢ $6 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -10.0% -18.6% 20% 0% -40.2%
≤30d 5 -10.0% -18.6% 20% 0% -40.2%
≤90d 5 -10.0% -18.6% 20% 0% -40.2%
all 5 -10.0% -18.6% 20% 0% -40.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 0% -40.2%
10% -26.4% 0% -45.9%
15% -33.5% 0% -51.1%
20% -40.0% 0% -55.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.06 · official $48.06 (match) · 33 history records