Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:48:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BD
0xbd1f…e7ec
crypto · 1430 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$13,954 -40%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$13,187 · open −$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized−$13,187
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses719 / 766
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1485 / 1430
History coverage27d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day102.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1485 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18,968
7 days−$18,171
14 days−$18,171
30 days−$13,187
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Up 46¢ 20¢ $23 $10 −$13 (-58%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $145 $0 −$145 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $268 $0 −$268 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $145 −$145 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $268 −$268 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $159 −$159 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10PM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $75 −$75 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$7,425
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $24 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $24 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $23 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $23 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $32 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $31 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 527 -53.7% -58.1% 24% 22% -75.1%
≤30d 1485 -5.8% -14.8% 48% 48% -34.6%
≤90d 1485 -5.8% -14.8% 48% 48% -34.6%
all 1485 -5.8% -14.8% 48% 48% -34.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover102.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 48% -34.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 48% -40.9%
15% -30.4% 47% -46.6%
20% -37.2% 46% -51.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.75 · official $9.25 (match) · 3500 history records