Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:22:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd1f…be44 crypto 506 markets active 1h ago coverage 359d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,600 (-17%) realized −$1,600 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate28%140W / 361L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$44
14 days+$44
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$2,169
weather 3% −$76
other 1% +$1
world 1% +$74
sports 0% +$25
politics 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-31.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +104.7% +85.2% 30% 30% +72.0%
≤30d 18 +13.7% +2.9% 17% 17% +0.0%
≤90d 331 -28.9% -35.7% 24% 23% -38.1%
all 501 -23.7% -31.0% 28% 26% -33.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.0% 26% -33.3%
10% -37.6% 24% -39.7%
15% -43.6% 20% -45.5%
20% -49.2% 18% -50.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$12 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

359d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$1,600
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses140 / 361
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)501 / 506
History coverage359d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 501 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+27%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 167 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $22 +$8 +38%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $3 +$34 +1288%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 $0 -9%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 +$17 +329%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 3 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 21 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 21 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 16 $21 +$13 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 16 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 16 $11 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 16 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 16 $10 +$17 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 16 $16 −$8 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 16 $5 +$8 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 16 $16 +$8 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 16 $16 −$8 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 16 $17 −$17 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 16 $32 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 16 $26 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 16 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 16 $11 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 16 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 16 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 16 $10 +$19 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 16 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 16 $6 +$6 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 16 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 16 $7 +$8 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $18 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 1h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 78¢ $13 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $22 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 SELL Under 85¢ $5 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 SELL Under 67¢ $12 1h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 SELL Under 44¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 2h
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) AND Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY 3¢ $1 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Under 14¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $2 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $2 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.86 · official $34.88 (match) · 1779 history records