Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:32:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd1d…b57f sports 920 markets active 2h ago coverage 704d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ Covers last 703d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,498 (-13%) realized −$4,498 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate45%409W / 510L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 704d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% +$65
sports 31% −$2,451
other 18% −$256
world 12% +$358
crypto 5% +$32
tech 0% +$15
finance 0% +$5
economics 0% −$1
weather 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -40.8% -46.4% 33% 0% -38.4%
≤30d 4 -38.7% -44.6% 25% 0% -38.6%
≤90d 4 -38.7% -44.6% 25% 0% -38.6%
all 919 +1.1% -8.5% 45% 37% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 37% -15.2%
10% -17.3% 32% -23.3%
15% -25.3% 27% -30.7%
20% -32.6% 21% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% too few recent
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +5% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$19 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

704d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$4,498
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses409 / 510
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)919 / 920
History coverage704d ⚠
Avg bet$39
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 919 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $63 $63 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $326 −$158 -48%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $105 −$80 -77%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $290 +$8 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 09 $360 −$118 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Dec 13 $30 +$9 +31%
Will Israel raid Gaza aid ship Handala by Saturday? Dec 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon apologize to Trump before August? Dec 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Earthquake 7.0 or above by August 31? Dec 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Elon Musk tweets 25+ times Saturday? Dec 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 25–August 1? Dec 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25? Dec 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "President Xi" during his AI speech on July 23? Dec 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Dec 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon tweet 360–374 times August 1–August 8? Dec 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30? Dec 10 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 10 $492 −$396 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Dec 10 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Dec 10 $30 +$15 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Dec 09 $33 +$88 +267%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 05 $27 +$77 +283%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Nov 09 $889 −$213 -24%
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Nov 09 $174 −$56 -32%
Han Duck-soo in jail by August 15? Aug 07 $40 +$12 +31%
Elon Musk tweets 25+ times Thursday? Aug 07 $8 +$4 +49%
Elon Musk tweets 25+ times Wednesday? Aug 07 $5 +$3 +66%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in August? Aug 02 $5 −$1 -29%
Elon Musk tweets 25+ times Wednesday? Jul 31 $5 +$5 +113%
Thailand strikes Cambodia by Friday? Jul 25 $38 −$19 -49%
Elon Musk tweets 25+ times Thursday? Jul 25 $20 +$12 +59%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his AI speech on July 23? Jul 23 $16 +$8 +51%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the Energy and Jul 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during the Energy and Innovation Summi Jul 15 $1 +$2 +156%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the Energy and Innovation Jul 15 $22 +$6 +25%
Will Trump say "Epstein" this week? Jul 14 $10 −$1 -13%
Will Trump visit Texas by Friday? Jul 14 $15 −$14 -98%
Blue Jays vs. White Sox Jul 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Israel strikes Yemen by Monday? Jul 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Guardians vs. Astros Jul 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Yoon arrested by July 15? Jul 11 $16 −$10 -64%
Rockies vs. Red Sox Jul 08 $7 +$3 +44%
Rangers vs. Padres Jul 06 $10 $0 -2%
Astros vs. Dodgers Jul 06 $20 −$10 -48%
Twins vs. Rays Jul 05 $20 +$12 +58%
Reds vs. Phillies Jul 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times June 27–July 4? Jul 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Biden seen in public before August? Jul 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times June 27–July 4? Jul 05 $16 −$16 -100%
Rangers vs. Padres Jul 05 $10 +$10 +96%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in July? Jul 04 $3 +$2 +61%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday? Jul 04 $2 +$1 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $63 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 38¢ $24 4h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 11¢ $25 4h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $105 5h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 23¢ $105 5h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $302 14h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 97¢ $290 15h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL No 45¢ $242 13d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY No 62¢ $2 14d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY No 63¢ $358 14d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 BUY No 76¢ $30 193d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 BUY Yes 67¢ $23 195d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 BUY Yes 66¢ $7 195d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 BUY Yes $1 195d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 BUY Yes $1 195d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 SELL Yes 26¢ $88 195d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 SELL Yes 25¢ $3 195d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 SELL Yes 26¢ $8 195d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 SELL Yes 25¢ $1 195d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 SELL Yes 26¢ $22 195d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 BUY Yes $28 196d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 BUY Yes $5 196d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? BUY No $2 199d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 SELL Yes 100¢ $100 199d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 BUY Yes 24¢ $24 199d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 SELL No 76¢ $4 199d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 BUY No 57¢ $3 200d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? BUY No $18 203d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? BUY No $11 203d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? BUY No $6 203d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.37 · official $63.37 (match) · 3500 history records