Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:10:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BD 0xbd1c…7f8a other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$267 (+4%) realized +$268 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$607per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$404
7 days+$404
14 days+$440
30 days+$440
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$439
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +6.0% -4.1% 80% 40% -3.0%
≤30d 8 +8.2% -2.1% 62% 38% -2.8%
≤90d 8 +8.2% -2.1% 62% 38% -2.8%
all 8 +8.2% -2.1% 62% 38% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.1% 38% -2.8%
10% -11.5% 12% -12.1%
15% -20.0% 12% -20.6%
20% -27.9% 0% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$4 · ×25.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×42.18 per $1 lost it wins $42.18
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized+$268
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage9d
Avg bet$607
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? No 85¢ 84¢ $145 $144 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $152 −$5 -4%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,887 +$178 +6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,497 +$180 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,002 +$41 +4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $51 −$1 -3%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $101 −$4 -4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $99 +$41 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 64¢ $146 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $146 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 94¢ $2,365 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 91¢ $565 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $301 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 77¢ $222 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 92¢ $80 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 80¢ $20 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,497 11h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $1,001 11h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 11h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 57¢ $49 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 61¢ $97 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $99 8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AN BUY 14¢ $31 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $144.30 · official $144.30 (match) · 24 history records