Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:35:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BD 0xbd1b…95ef other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 420d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,129 (-39%) realized −$1,252 · open +$123
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate13%2W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$183per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$402now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$117
7 days−$296
14 days−$296
30 days−$526
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$983
politics 23% +$385
sports 14% −$402
culture 2% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-56.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.2% -8.4% 25% 25% -47.3%
≤30d 5 -19.0% -26.7% 20% 20% -60.2%
≤90d 5 -19.0% -26.7% 20% 20% -60.2%
all 15 -51.9% -56.5% 13% 13% -49.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -56.5% 13% -49.7%
10% -60.7% 13% -54.6%
15% -64.5% 13% -58.9%
20% -67.9% 13% -63.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -55% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$255 vs −$130 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

420d coverage
Net worth$402
Realized−$1,252
Unrealized+$123
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses2 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage420d
Avg bet$183
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 58¢ 84¢ $279 $402 +$123 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $358 −$117 -33%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$121 +238%
Will Senegal win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $235 −$230 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 24 $480 −$480 -100%
Pacers vs. Knicks May 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? May 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Real Madrid win La Liga? May 02 $140 −$140 -100%
Liberals win majority in Canadian election? Apr 29 $331 +$390 +118%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 27 $335 −$4 -1%
Copa del Rey Final: Real Madrid vs. Barcelona Apr 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Sperm Race: Tristan (USC) vs Asher (UCLA) Apr 26 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? Apr 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Sperm Race: Noah Boat vs Jimmy Zhang Apr 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $40 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $241 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 5d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $101 19d
Will Senegal win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 19d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $154 19d
Will Senegal win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 19d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 19d
Will Senegal win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 36¢ $102 20d
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? BUY Yes 21¢ $30 391d
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? BUY Yes 21¢ $100 391d
Pacers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 40¢ $50 391d
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? BUY Yes 45¢ $250 391d
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? BUY Yes 43¢ $100 391d
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? BUY Yes $50 394d
Will Real Madrid win La Liga? BUY Yes 14¢ $140 413d
Liberals win majority in Canadian election? SELL No 93¢ $721 416d
Liberals win majority in Canadian election? BUY No 42¢ $181 417d
Liberals win majority in Canadian election? BUY No 44¢ $150 418d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL Yes 77¢ $331 418d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes 78¢ $335 418d
Copa del Rey Final: Real Madrid vs. Barcelona BUY Real Madrid 45¢ $100 419d
Sperm Race: Tristan (USC) vs Asher (UCLA) BUY Asher (UCLA) 45¢ $15 419d
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? BUY Yes 22¢ $100 419d
Sperm Race: Tristan (USC) vs Asher (UCLA) BUY Asher (UCLA) 50¢ $47 419d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $402.35 · official $402.35 (match) · 51 history records