Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:05:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BD 0xbd16…d24d sports 156 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,784 (-19%) realized −$5,785 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%70W / 85L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$200per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$797est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$320
14 days−$617
30 days−$1,371
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$4,107
other 16% −$1,819
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -12.0% -20.4% 53% 53% -37.5%
≤30d 44 -19.6% -27.3% 45% 43% -38.7%
≤90d 155 -16.8% -24.8% 45% 41% -29.3%
all 155 -16.8% -24.8% 45% 41% -29.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.8% 41% -29.3%
10% -32.0% 37% -36.0%
15% -38.5% 32% -42.2%
20% -44.6% 25% -47.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$156 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$5,785
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses70 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$797
Open positions1
Markets (closed)155 / 156
History coverage76d
Avg bet$200
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 46¢ $73 $74 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $97 +$67 +69%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $38 −$37 -98%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $45 −$45 -100%
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $36 +$16 +45%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $68 −$67 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $343 −$338 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $28 +$7 +27%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $36 +$36 +100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $34 +$13 +40%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $59 +$42 +71%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $74 −$73 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $33 −$33 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $64 +$72 +112%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $68 +$39 +57%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $74 +$44 +60%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $69 −$69 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $58 −$58 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $74 +$35 +48%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $129 +$39 +30%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $21 +$17 +78%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $97 −$97 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $349 −$343 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $165 −$2 -1%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $63 −$63 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $68 +$40 +59%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $73 +$62 +85%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $134 −$6 -4%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $106 +$104 +98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $138 +$28 +21%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $123 −$123 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $161 −$57 -35%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $138 −$138 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $206 −$206 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $141 +$73 +52%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $138 −$138 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $129 +$77 +60%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $26 +$4 +15%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $33 −$33 -100%
Will England win? Jun 05 $139 +$9 +7%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $225 −$111 -49%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $401 +$26 +6%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $168 +$7 +4%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 May 30 $109 +$41 +38%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $395 +$37 +9%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $33 +$12 +36%
Girona FC vs. Elche CF: O/U 2.5 May 23 $130 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $74 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 67¢ $48 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $30 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 56¢ $115 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $37 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $30 5h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $38 27h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $45 27h
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 73¢ $53 2d
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $36 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $68 4d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $0 4d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $1 4d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $10 4d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $1 4d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $6 4d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $1 4d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $3 4d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $46 4d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 16¢ $35 4d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 12¢ $28 4d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 37¢ $275 4d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 50¢ $36 4d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 27¢ $20 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 65¢ $47 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 46¢ $34 5d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 74¢ $101 5d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $19 5d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $4 5d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $37 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.81 · official $73.81 (match) · 1171 history records