Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T00:13:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd12…ffb5 crypto 1094 markets active 1d ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$126 (+0%) realized +$126 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate83%910W / 184L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44
7 days−$84
14 days−$79
30 days−$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$69
weather 5% +$7
other 1% $0
politics 0% −$8
sports 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -4.8% -13.9% 85% 25% -14.1%
≤30d 181 -0.5% -10.0% 86% 31% -10.7%
≤90d 1070 +0.0% -9.5% 83% 37% -9.4%
all 1094 -0.3% -9.8% 83% 37% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 37% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 18% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 7% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$16 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$126
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses910 / 184
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1094 / 1094
History coverage149d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1094 Trades
no open positions (113 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 27 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 27 $60 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 27 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 27 $60 −$10 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 27 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 27 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 26 $60 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $60 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 25 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 25 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 25 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $60 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 25 $121 −$70 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 24 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 24 $102 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 24 $61 +$12 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$8 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 24 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 24 $60 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 23 $60 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 22 $60 +$3 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $50 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $50 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $45 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $11 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2512 history records