Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:29:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BD 0xbd10…fcdf sports 74 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$319 (+1%) realized +$309 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate96%50W / 2L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$293per market
Trades / day34.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$6,160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$269
other 41% +$3
politics 10% +$18
finance 0% $0
world 0% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +4.5% -5.4% 96% 4% -7.9%
≤30d 52 +4.5% -5.4% 96% 4% -7.9%
≤90d 52 +4.5% -5.4% 96% 4% -7.9%
all 52 +4.5% -5.4% 96% 4% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.4% 4% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -14.5% 2% -16.8%
15% -22.8% 2% -24.8%
20% -30.3% 2% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$511) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$107 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.32 per $1 lost it wins $2.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$6,160
Realized+$309
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses50 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions22
Markets (closed)52 / 74
History coverage4d
Avg bet$293
Trades / day34.1
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $655 $662 +$7 (+1%)
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $387 $389 +$2 (+1%)
Will the announcers say "History" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA World Cup Match? No 97¢ 98¢ $322 $323 +$1 (+0%)
Will the announcers say "Verizon" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA World Cup Match? No 99¢ 97¢ $317 $313 −$4 (-1%)
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA World Cup Match? No 98¢ 98¢ $308 $308 +$0 (+0%)
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA World Cup Match? No 97¢ 98¢ $307 $308 +$1 (+0%)
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA World Cup Match? No 97¢ 98¢ $305 $305 +$1 (+0%)
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA World Cup Match? No 97¢ 100¢ $296 $305 +$8 (+3%)
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $301 $303 +$2 (+1%)
Will the announcers say "Adidas" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA World Cup Match? No 99¢ 98¢ $300 $296 −$3 (-1%)
Will the announcers say "Hattrick / Hat Trick" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA World Cup Match? No 97¢ 90¢ $308 $285 −$23 (-7%)
Will Trump say "Medal" 5+ times during Medal of Honor ceremony on June 18? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $256 $264 +$7 (+3%)
Will the announcers say "Penalty Shootout" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA World Cup Match? No 97¢ 98¢ $250 $251 +$1 (+0%)
Will the announcers say "Powerade" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA World Cup Match? No 97¢ 97¢ $245 $245 −$0 (-0%)
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg / Meg" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA World Cup Match? No 97¢ 90¢ $241 $224 −$17 (-7%)
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 3+ times during Medal of Honor ceremony on June 18? No 80¢ 100¢ $136 $169 +$33 (+25%)
Will Trump say "Deal" 3+ times during Medal of Honor ceremony on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $143 $143 −$0 (-0%)
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA World Cup Match? No 96¢ 90¢ $146 $138 −$9 (-6%)
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA World Cup Match? No 96¢ 98¢ $108 $110 +$2 (+2%)
Will Trump say "Stock Market" during Medal of Honor ceremony on June 18? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $79 $80 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump say "Hundred" or "Thousand" 15+ times during Medal of Honor ceremony on June 18? No 98¢ 99¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump say "Iran" 3+ times during Medal of Honor ceremony on June 18? No 98¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF Jun 18 $884 +$37 +4%
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Czechia vs South Africa Jun 18 $422 +$6 +1%
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Czechia vs South Africa FI Jun 18 $481 +$10 +2%
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Czechia vs South Africa Jun 18 $511 +$9 +2%
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Czechia vs South Africa FI Jun 18 $882 +$8 +1%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF Jun 18 $635 +$11 +2%
Will the announcers say "President" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Jun 18 $53 +$1 +2%
Will the announcers say "Foul" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia Jun 18 $104 +$1 +1%
Will the announcers say "Offside" or "Offsides" 10+ times during the E Jun 18 $104 +$1 +1%
Will the announcers say "Shot" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia Jun 18 $111 +$1 +1%
Will the announcers say "Love" or "Lovely" during the England vs Croat Jun 18 $534 +$13 +2%
Will "Trump" be said 10+ times during the next episode of the Lemonade Jun 17 $109 +$1 +1%
Will "Weather" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand P Jun 17 $140 +$3 +2%
Will "AI" be said 5+ times during the next episode of the Lemonade Sta Jun 17 $212 +$3 +1%
Will "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" be said 5+ times during the Jun 17 $291 +$7 +2%
Will "Heart" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? Jun 17 $27 +$1 +3%
Will "Spider" be said 4+ times during the next Spider-Man trailer? Jun 17 $164 +$5 +3%
Will "Friendly" or "Neighbor" or "Neighborhood" be said during the nex Jun 17 $234 +$8 +3%
Will "Kid" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? Jun 17 $240 +$5 +2%
Will "Home" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? Jun 17 $272 +$6 +2%
Will "Strange" or "Stark" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? Jun 17 $276 +$13 +5%
Will "Rebirth" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? Jun 17 $303 +$7 +2%
Will "Peter" be said 3+ times during the next Spider-Man trailer? Jun 17 $343 +$10 +3%
Will "Monster" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? Jun 17 $657 +$17 +3%
Will "May" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? Jun 17 $348 +$8 +2%
Will "MJ" be said 2+ times during the next Spider-Man trailer? Jun 17 $656 +$19 +3%
Will "School" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? Jun 17 $556 +$19 +4%
Will "Frank" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? Jun 17 $631 +$17 +3%
Will "Sorry" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? Jun 17 $512 +$14 +3%
Will Trump say "Greatest" during UFC 250? Jun 17 $133 +$193 +146%
Will Trump say "UFC" this week? Jun 17 $545 +$6 +1%
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? Jun 17 $257 +$4 +2%
Will Trump say "Star" this week? Jun 17 $558 −$35 -6%
Will Trump say "Washington" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $243 +$3 +1%
Will Trump say "Danger" this week? Jun 16 $86 +$2 +2%
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? Jun 16 $139 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? Jun 16 $185 +$3 +2%
Will anyone say "Existence" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $236 $0 +0%
Will anyone say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Rick and Mort Jun 15 $30 $0 +2%
Will anyone say "Bird" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $234 $0 +0%
Will anyone say "Six Seven" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $245 +$2 +1%
Will anyone say "Space" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $27 $0 +2%
Will anyone say "Dimensional" or "Interdimensional" during Rick and Mo Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Will anyone say "Clone" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $266 $0 +0%
Will anyone say "Sleep" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $23 $0 +1%
Will anyone say "President" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $236 $0 +0%
Will anyone say "Robot" or "Bot" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $1,176 −$180 -15%
Will anyone say "Rick" 10+ times during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $221 +$3 +1%
Will anyone say "Suck" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $233 +$3 +2%
Will anyone say "Evil" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $257 +$9 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump say "Deal" 3+ times during Medal of Honor ceremony on June BUY No 99¢ $99 9m
Will Trump say "Iran" 3+ times during Medal of Honor ceremony on June BUY No 98¢ $45 10m
Will Trump say "Deal" 3+ times during Medal of Honor ceremony on June BUY No 98¢ $44 10m
Will Trump say "Hundred" or "Thousand" 15+ times during Medal of Honor BUY No 98¢ $49 10m
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 3+ times during Medal of Honor cerem BUY No 80¢ $137 18m
Will Trump say "Medal" 5+ times during Medal of Honor ceremony on June BUY Yes 97¢ $257 21m
Will Trump say "Stock Market" during Medal of Honor ceremony on June 1 BUY Yes 99¢ $79 31m
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg / Meg" during the Czechia vs South Afr BUY No 99¢ $42 1h
Will the announcers say "Powerade" during the Czechia vs South Africa BUY No 99¢ $54 1h
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Czechia vs South Africa BUY No 99¢ $34 1h
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Czechia vs S BUY Yes 99¢ $387 1h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Czechia vs South Africa F BUY Yes 98¢ $98 3h
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Czechia vs South Afri BUY No 96¢ $147 3h
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Czechia vs South Africa F BUY No 98¢ $308 3h
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Czechia vs South Africa FI BUY No 97¢ $305 3h
Will the announcers say "Penalty Shootout" during the Czechia vs South BUY No 97¢ $250 3h
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg / Meg" during the Czechia vs South Afr BUY No 96¢ $199 3h
Will the announcers say "Hattrick / Hat Trick" during the Czechia vs S BUY No 97¢ $309 3h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF BUY No 98¢ $635 3h
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the Czechia vs South Afri BUY No 97¢ $297 3h
Will the announcers say "Adidas" during the Czechia vs South Africa FI BUY No 99¢ $300 3h
Will the announcers say "Verizon" during the Czechia vs South Africa F BUY No 99¢ $317 3h
Will the announcers say "Powerade" during the Czechia vs South Africa BUY No 97¢ $191 3h
Will the announcers say "History" during the Czechia vs South Africa F BUY No 97¢ $323 3h
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Czechia vs South Africa BUY No 95¢ $74 3h
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF BUY No 97¢ $307 3h
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF BUY Yes 99¢ $103 3h
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF BUY Yes 99¢ $49 3h
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF BUY Yes 98¢ $275 3h
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF BUY Yes 94¢ $457 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,160.19 · official $6,160.19 (match) · 184 history records