Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:09:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd0e…04db crypto 1035 markets active 0h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$45 (-4%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%402W / 633L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day22.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$141
7 days−$70
14 days−$47
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-28.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 684 -33.4% -39.7% 24% 24% -23.8%
≤30d 1009 -20.9% -28.5% 39% 39% -15.8%
≤90d 1035 -21.2% -28.7% 39% 38% -16.6%
all 1035 -21.2% -28.7% 39% 38% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.7% 38% -16.6%
10% ← realistic here -35.5% 14% -24.6%
15% -41.8% 11% -31.8%
20% -47.5% 8% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late -84% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses402 / 633
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1035 / 1035
History coverage87d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day22.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1035 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.03 (match) · 2873 history records