Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:07:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BD 0xbd08…5ae1 crypto 952 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d only
✗ bot/MM pace (123 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$441 (-1%) realized −$438 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate69%672W / 304L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day123.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$927
7 days−$884
14 days−$1,708
30 days−$1,976
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,294
finance 0% +$12
other 0% −$12
world 0% −$2
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (123 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 144 -19.4% -27.0% 51% 51% -20.5%
≤30d 976 +0.6% -9.0% 69% 69% -13.6%
≤90d 976 +0.6% -9.0% 69% 69% -13.6%
all 976 +0.6% -9.0% 69% 69% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover123.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 69% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 30% -21.9%
15% -25.6% 6% -29.5%
20% -32.9% 2% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$23 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$438
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses672 / 304
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)976 / 952
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$38
Trades / day123.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 976 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $9 $6 −$3 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $42 −$85 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$41 -200%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$2 -200%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$19 -200%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$19 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$2 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$39 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -200%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$8 -200%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$24 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$17 -200%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$52 -200%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $34 −$68 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$51 -200%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$10 -200%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$80 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$40 -200%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$17 -200%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$30 -200%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$4 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$7 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $42 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $39 +$10 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $42 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $71 −$21 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $33 +$6 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$10 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $42 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$10 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $76 −$26 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $83 −$33 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $84 −$34 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$9 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $39 +$11 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $74 −$24 -32%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $6 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $13 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $22 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $13 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $8 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $7 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $27 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $42 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $32 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $33 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $35 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $24 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $28 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $8 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $6 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $40 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $41 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $22 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.84 · official $5.86 (match) · 3500 history records