Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:47:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd06…a6f5 other 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 254d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$61 (-7%) realized −$95 · open +$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate57%36W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$3
14 days+$28
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% −$18
other 28% −$7
crypto 8% −$46
weather 8% −$23
world 6% +$8
tech 6% −$11
sports 3% +$31
economics 2% +$4
culture 1% +$2
finance 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -45.0% -50.3% 50% 0% -20.4%
≤30d 8 +6.3% -3.9% 75% 38% +26.8%
≤90d 8 +6.3% -3.9% 75% 38% +26.8%
all 63 -10.9% -19.4% 57% 30% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 30% -21.4%
10% -27.1% 16% -28.9%
15% -34.2% 13% -35.8%
20% -40.6% 8% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

254d coverage
Net worth$143
Realized−$95
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses36 / 27
Open positions7
Markets (closed)63 / 70
History coverage254d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? No 68¢ 97¢ $74 $106 +$32 (+43%)
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? No 57¢ 64¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? No 89¢ 81¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-9%)
Will Gold (GC) settle over $7,000 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 90¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will Trump be impeached by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? Yes 12¢ 20¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+62%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Jun 08 $3 +$2 +47%
Hillary Clinton charged by March 31? Jun 08 $5 $0 +4%
Bill Clinton charged by March 31? Jun 08 $5 $0 +8%
Will the US deport illegal migrants to Argentina by March 31? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +11%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Jun 08 $20 +$34 +170%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February? Mar 03 $4 +$1 +16%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in Janua Mar 03 $3 +$2 +75%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of February? Mar 03 $5 $0 +10%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase February 3-9? Mar 03 $4 +$1 +20%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? Mar 03 $4 $0 +11%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of February? Mar 03 $5 $0 +9%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? Mar 03 $5 $0 +4%
Moltbook shutdown by Feb 28? Mar 03 $5 $0 +4%
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? Mar 03 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 03 $4 −$1 -30%
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 3.50% and 3.99%? Mar 03 $3 −$1 -41%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? Mar 03 $3 −$2 -55%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 3, 2026? Feb 05 $5 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $80,000 on February 3? Feb 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 3? Feb 03 $10 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Feb 03 $5 $0 +4%
Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Artemis II booster rupture? Feb 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 03 $4 $0 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Feb 03 $4 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Feb 03 $5 $0 +5%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 03 $5 $0 +6%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Feb 03 $5 +$1 +14%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's January 2026 meetin Feb 03 $8 +$2 +19%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by Jan Feb 03 $8 +$2 +20%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Feb 03 $15 +$2 +11%
Will the US strike Somalia next? Feb 03 $10 +$7 +70%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 03 $13 +$7 +52%
UFC 324: Figueiredo vs. Nurmagomedov (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jan 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jan 21 $5 $0 -5%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Jan 21 $160 −$48 -30%
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? Jan 19 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of January? Jan 19 $9 +$3 +33%
Will Trump and Machado not shake hands? Jan 16 $8 −$7 -88%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Jan 16 $5 −$2 -36%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jan 16 $5 −$1 -15%
Will Trump say "Brazil" this week? (November 17 – 23) Jan 14 $5 +$2 +37%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jan 14 $5 +$4 +89%
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 November 17-23? Nov 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Nov 18 $7 −$7 -100%
S&P 500 all time high by December 31? Nov 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in November? Nov 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 57¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 93¢ $22 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 84¢ $20 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 8d
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Charles Oliveira 37¢ $20 101d
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $4 105d
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 105d
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 3.50% and 3.99%? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 105d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 105d
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 122d
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? SELL Yes 24¢ $3 122d
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $28 124d
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? BUY No 67¢ $20 124d
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? BUY No 82¢ $7 130d
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? BUY No 82¢ $5 130d
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? BUY No 82¢ $5 130d
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 3, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 131d
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher BUY Yes 12¢ $2 133d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in Janua BUY Yes 57¢ $3 133d
Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th BUY Yes 68¢ $3 133d
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 71¢ $4 133d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $80,000 on February 3? SELL Yes 98¢ $5 133d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 3? SELL No 99¢ $10 133d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 SELL Yes 98¢ $5 133d
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 133d
Will Gold (GC) settle over $7,000 on the final trading day of June 202 BUY No 90¢ $5 133d
Will Trump be impeached by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $5 133d
Hillary Clinton charged by March 31? BUY No 96¢ $5 133d
Bill Clinton charged by March 31? BUY No 93¢ $5 133d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.72 · official $142.72 (match) · 152 history records