Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:23:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BD 0xbd02…0d0e sports 69 markets active 2h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$747 (+18%) realized +$740 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%31W / 35L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$165
7 days−$24
14 days−$116
30 days+$255
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$751
other 47% +$200
world 1% −$52
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +21.1% +9.6% 47% 47% -12.1%
≤30d 26 +28.1% +15.9% 54% 54% +3.6%
≤90d 66 +2.4% -7.3% 47% 45% +9.7%
all 66 +2.4% -7.3% 47% 45% +9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 45% +9.7%
10% -16.2% 44% -0.8%
15% -24.3% 44% -10.4%
20% -31.7% 33% -19.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$40 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$740
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses31 / 35
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions2
Markets (closed)66 / 69
History coverage68d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 38¢ $25 $31 +$6 (+25%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Senegal vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 AND S Jun 26 $5 +$19 +379%
Senegal vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND S Jun 26 $188 +$196 +105%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 24 $102 −$102 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Marcus Rashford: 1+ shots Jun 23 $30 +$52 +172%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 22 $25 +$23 +90%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $25 +$24 +93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $51 +$49 +97%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $51 +$45 +90%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $31 −$2 -8%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $25 +$16 +64%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 19 $25 +$20 +79%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $26 −$7 -27%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$51 +101%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 −$20 -20%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $26 +$58 +226%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 +$5 +48%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 +$13 +50%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $406 +$370 +91%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Croatia vs Jersey May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07? May 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 24 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 24 $52 −$52 -100%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 24 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $51 −$12 -24%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $102 +$126 +124%
Will Belgium come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 −$10 -94%
Will France be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Sweden come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 $0 -17%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $92 +$204 +223%
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 10 $254 +$218 +86%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 10 $51 −$17 -33%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $127 −$127 -100%
Fulham FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Both Teams to Score May 09 $24 +$12 +48%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $51 +$45 +90%
Spread: Derby County FC (-1.5) May 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5) May 07 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $252 +$110 +44%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $68 +$29 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Senegal vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND S BUY 45¢ $25 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND S BUY 43¢ $10 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND S BUY 42¢ $6 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND S BUY 40¢ $6 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND S BUY 38¢ $7 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND S BUY 38¢ $5 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND S BUY 38¢ $5 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND S BUY 39¢ $5 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND S BUY 39¢ $5 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND S BUY 38¢ $5 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND S BUY 42¢ $5 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND S BUY 38¢ $5 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 AND S BUY 20¢ $5 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND S BUY 44¢ $49 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND S SELL 48¢ $60 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND S BUY 37¢ $25 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND S BUY 40¢ $25 1h
Marcus Rashford: 1+ shots BUY No 36¢ $30 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 36¢ $51 4d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $26 4d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $51 5d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 52¢ $25 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 83¢ $49 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 42¢ $25 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 64¢ $51 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 40¢ $51 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 6d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 50¢ $51 6d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $51 6d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 41¢ $51 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.90 · official $36.90 (match) · 167 history records