Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:58:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BC 0xbcff…2a59 world 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$148 (-1%) realized −$227 · open +$79
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate52%37W / 34L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$679now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$274
7 days+$339
14 days+$339
30 days+$339
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% −$572
other 15% +$604
sports 1% −$59
politics 1% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -6.3% -15.2% 50% 44% +14.2%
≤30d 16 -6.3% -15.2% 50% 44% +14.2%
≤90d 18 -16.5% -24.4% 44% 39% -9.0%
all 71 -17.3% -25.2% 52% 42% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 42% -11.0%
10% -32.3% 34% -19.5%
15% -38.9% 24% -27.3%
20% -44.9% 17% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$67 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$679
Realized−$227
Unrealized+$79
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses37 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)71 / 78
History coverage224d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 55¢ $300 $310 +$10 (+3%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 65¢ 100¢ $130 $201 +$71 (+54%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 50¢ 52¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $18 −$1 -8%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 24 $46 +$2 +4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $102 +$142 +140%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$131 +129%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $246 +$121 +49%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $142 +$108 +76%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$29 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $107 +$43 +40%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Jun 18 $5 −$3 -65%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $45 −$31 -68%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 18 $120 −$97 -81%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Mar 30 $40 −$39 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Mar 30 $297 −$290 -98%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 25 $100 +$33 +33%
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7? Mar 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 01 $40 +$78 +194%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 14 $100 −$81 -81%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 10, 2026? Feb 11 $30 −$15 -50%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 4, 2026? Feb 04 $157 +$299 +191%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 25, 2026? Feb 01 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $21 −$21 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $251 −$250 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 28, 2026? Jan 28 $434 −$277 -64%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 24 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 21, 2026? Jan 21 $347 +$103 +30%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 13, 2026? Jan 13 $13 −$12 -93%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 13, 2026? Jan 13 $95 −$93 -98%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 10, 2026? Jan 13 $532 +$50 +9%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 6, 2026? Jan 08 $569 +$104 +18%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 4, 2026? Jan 06 $713 +$46 +6%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 6, 2026? Jan 06 $44 +$5 +11%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 5, 2026? Jan 05 $36 +$8 +23%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 4, 2026? Jan 04 $20 +$16 +79%
Will Israel strike 1 country in December 2025? Jan 03 $111 +$61 +55%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31? Jan 03 $628 +$14 +2%
Israel strike on the West Bank by December 31? Dec 31 $21 −$21 -99%
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by December 31? Dec 31 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 27? Dec 28 $612 +$16 +3%
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 16? Dec 19 $494 +$118 +24%
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 15? Dec 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 14? Dec 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14? Dec 14 $458 +$71 +15%
Will Israel strike 3 or more countries in December 2025? Dec 14 $11 −$4 -40%
Will Israel strike 2 countries in December 2025? Dec 14 $20 −$10 -51%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17? Dec 14 $73 −$73 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 1h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 25¢ $17 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $30 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 59¢ $48 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $41 12h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $41 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $203 12h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 40h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 55¢ $46 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 26¢ $18 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $51 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $368 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $242 4d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $7 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $142 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $130 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $121 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $77 6d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 6d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $14 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $678.59 · official $676.70 (match) · 238 history records