Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:51:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbcfa…0f2a world 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 487d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized −$15 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate29%19W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$1
politics 22% $0
other 18% $0
sports 11% −$11
economics 5% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.5% -10.0% 25% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 27 -4.1% -13.2% 41% 4% -9.8%
≤90d 64 -1.3% -10.7% 30% 3% -9.6%
all 65 -2.8% -12.1% 29% 3% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 3% -10.1%
10% -20.5% 2% -18.7%
15% -28.2% 2% -26.6%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

487d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses19 / 46
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)65 / 67
History coverage487d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+2%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $4 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $41 −$2 -6%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $31 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 17 $34 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $71 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $17 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $14 −$1 -10%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $37 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $43 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $14 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $1 $0 +8%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $13 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $76 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 27 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $6 +$1 +11%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $36 $0 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 24 $39 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $34 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 24 $37 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $4 $0 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $5 −$1 -19%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 19 $73 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 17 $51 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $2 $0 -5%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $72 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $36 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $103 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $39 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $69 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $3 $0 -5%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $34 $0 +1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $87 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $38 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 12 $73 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $38 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 10 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 93¢ $35 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 33h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $36 39h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $36 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $30 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $32 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $3 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $27 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $31 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $22 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $13 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $34 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $37 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $17 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $17 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $9 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $9 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $5 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $8 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $10 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $4 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $39 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.47 · official $35.91 (match) · 258 history records