Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:59:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbcf9…9b13 other 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$265 (-2%) realized −$185 · open −$80
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate67%54W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$1,876now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$102
14 days−$102
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$374
world 37% −$100
politics 19% +$74
economics 1% +$6
sports 1% +$26
tech 1% +$12
weather 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -10.8% -19.3% 62% 31% -16.6%
≤30d 16 -10.8% -19.3% 62% 31% -16.6%
≤90d 81 -7.1% -16.0% 67% 26% -12.1%
all 81 -7.1% -16.0% 67% 26% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 26% -12.1%
10% -24.0% 21% -20.5%
15% -31.4% 11% -28.2%
20% -38.1% 9% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$26 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$1,876
Realized−$185
Unrealized−$80
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses54 / 27
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions21
Markets (closed)81 / 102
History coverage78d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? Yes 63¢ 78¢ $440 $540 +$100 (+23%)
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $353 $356 +$3 (+1%)
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? No 92¢ 98¢ $236 $250 +$14 (+6%)
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? No 98¢ 98¢ $181 $180 −$0 (-0%)
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? Yes 55¢ 49¢ $128 $116 −$12 (-10%)
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? No 99¢ 97¢ $96 $95 −$2 (-2%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 46¢ 46¢ $69 $68 −$1 (-1%)
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? No 100¢ 96¢ $70 $67 −$2 (-3%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+1%)
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 89¢ 99¢ $27 $30 +$3 (+12%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 66¢ 69¢ $26 $28 +$1 (+5%)
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+5%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $12 $17 +$4 (+35%)
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? No 46¢ 22¢ $31 $15 −$16 (-51%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 81¢ 34¢ $32 $13 −$19 (-58%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 6¢ 9¢ $8 $13 +$5 (+63%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 17¢ 66¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+288%)
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $9 $2 −$7 (-72%)
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? No 97¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $33 $1 −$32 (-97%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 23¢ 1¢ $11 $1 −$11 (-95%)
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-64%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-93%)
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Jun 19 $20 +$7 +34%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Jun 19 $199 +$1 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $191 +$8 +4%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $16 −$14 -85%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 17 $82 −$4 -5%
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? Jun 17 $17 +$4 +24%
Kanye blocked from entering another country by June 30? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +47%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $236 −$108 -46%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $288 +$11 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +11%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 14 $7 +$3 +35%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 14 $39 +$1 +2%
Trump posts himself as Jesus again in April? Jun 14 $142 +$9 +6%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 03 $65 −$30 -45%
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw Apr 28 $192 +$8 +4%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Apr 27 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by April Apr 25 $94 +$6 +6%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 24 $145 −$39 -27%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $97 +$3 +3%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 22 $54 +$16 +29%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 22 $466 +$39 +8%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $99 +$1 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $9 +$2 +23%
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple? Apr 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Apr 21 $316 +$9 +3%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Apr 21 $653 +$39 +6%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Apr 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Apr 19 $79 −$46 -58%
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by Ap Apr 19 $496 +$4 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $9 +$12 +141%
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw Apr 17 $89 +$1 +1%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Apr 17 $72 +$2 +3%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Apr 16 $6 −$2 -30%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Apr 16 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Trump disparage Pope Leo XIV by April 30? Apr 15 $15 +$2 +15%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? Apr 15 $12 +$9 +80%
Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? Apr 15 $8 +$12 +152%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Apr 14 $105 +$9 +9%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Apr 14 $41 −$29 -70%
Will Trump dance during UFC 327? Apr 14 $77 +$26 +33%
Pam Bondi testifies before congress by May 31? Apr 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Apr 14 $82 −$43 -53%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Apr 13 $27 −$23 -85%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Apr 13 $28 +$2 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $36 44m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 46¢ $69 49m
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 10¢ $2 52m
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 10¢ $13 53m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 55m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $32 56m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 56m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $49 1h
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 96¢ $10 1h
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid SELL No 91¢ $89 1h
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 99¢ $235 1h
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 98¢ $20 1h
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world SELL No 93¢ $5 2h
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 98¢ $20 2h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 98¢ $171 2h
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world BUY No 93¢ $12 2h
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world BUY No 93¢ $33 2h
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world BUY No 92¢ $29 2h
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world BUY No 91¢ $18 2h
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world BUY No 91¢ $18 2h
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world SELL No 90¢ $4 2h
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world BUY No 93¢ $78 2h
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world BUY No 93¢ $59 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,876.29 · official $1,877.52 (match) · 1000 history records