Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:50:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
BC 0xbcf7…e19c politics 142 markets active 0h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$363 (-0%) realized −$363 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate20%29W / 113L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,207per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$5
14 days−$144
30 days−$1,190
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% −$73
other 37% +$275
sports 21% −$610
world 2% +$24
culture 1% −$3
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.5% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 37 -8.5% -17.3% 8% 3% -12.4%
≤90d 106 -9.6% -18.2% 9% 5% -10.5%
all 142 +3.9% -6.0% 20% 15% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 15% -9.7%
10% -15.0% 15% -18.4%
15% -23.2% 13% -26.3%
20% -30.7% 11% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,634) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +12% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$18 · ×3.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$363
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses29 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)142 / 142
History coverage123d
Avg bet$1,207
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 142 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $561 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $410 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,062 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2,063 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $597 −$1 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 14 $601 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $179 +$3 +2%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $519 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $597 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,159 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,185 −$3 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $2,889 −$3 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $2,253 −$3 -0%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $60 −$60 -100%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $643 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $651 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $653 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 05 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $680 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $3,358 −$4 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $264 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $3,102 −$4 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $2,270 −$3 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 26 $633 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,154 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $1,401 −$2 -0%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $74 +$64 +86%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $553 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $561 −$1 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 23 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $1,962 −$2 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 22 $731 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $705 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? May 19 $351 −$1 -0%
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 19 $1,032 −$1,032 -100%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $3,250 −$4 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 10 $1,363 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $1,563 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $1,555 −$2 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $1,510 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $3,454 −$3 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $2,102 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $1,547 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $3,941 −$4 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $1,231 −$1 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $2,687 −$3 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $1,029 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $2,854 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $561 18m
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $561 1h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $410 3h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $410 5h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $549 5h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $550 7h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $465 45h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $466 47h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $595 2d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $596 3d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $595 3d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $596 3d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $596 3d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $597 4d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $600 4d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $601 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? BUY No 98¢ $179 6d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $519 7d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $519 8d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $596 8d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $597 8d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $498 8d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $499 8d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $598 9d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $599 9d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $601 9d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $602 10d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $599 10d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $600 10d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $598 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 450 history records