Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:22:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BC 0xbcf4…a6e8 politics 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 165d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$241 (+9%) realized +$292 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$652now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days+$60
30 days+$147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$47
politics 29% −$19
world 22% +$131
sports 12% +$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -3.8% -12.9% 0% 0% -12.9%
≤30d 3 +55.5% +40.7% 67% 67% +20.0%
≤90d 9 +29.6% +17.3% 67% 44% +8.7%
all 11 +24.2% +12.3% 55% 36% +7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.3% 36% +7.6%
10% +1.6% 27% -2.7%
15% -8.2% 27% -12.1%
20% -17.2% 27% -20.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$6 · ×8.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.42 per $1 lost it wins $12.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$652
Realized+$292
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions9
Markets (closed)11 / 20
History coverage165d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 94¢ 95¢ $206 $210 +$4 (+2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $114 $113 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 83¢ 85¢ $108 $110 +$2 (+2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 89¢ $98 $98 +$1 (+1%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 64¢ 41¢ $127 $83 −$44 (-35%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 28¢ 16¢ $22 $12 −$10 (-45%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $10 $12 +$1 (+12%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $12 $8 −$4 (-31%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $6 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 25 $258 −$10 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $70 +$70 +100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $123 +$87 +70%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 26 $182 −$3 -2%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 22 $117 +$93 +80%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $127 −$12 -10%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? May 11 $180 +$17 +10%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Apr 05 $299 +$43 +14%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 30 $105 +$8 +8%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jan 16 $17 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 16 $68 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $114 1h
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 75¢ $148 7h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $206 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $98 22d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 22d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 77¢ $155 25d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 28¢ $23 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $70 26d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 90¢ $179 30d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 91¢ $182 31d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 34d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 34d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 34d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 34d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 34d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 34d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY Yes 9¢ $11 34d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 83¢ $109 39d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 54¢ $117 39d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 62¢ $122 44d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 64¢ $4 44d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 64¢ $9 44d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 64¢ $9 44d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 64¢ $32 44d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 64¢ $2 45d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 64¢ $34 45d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 64¢ $3 45d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 64¢ $3 45d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 64¢ $2 45d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 64¢ $14 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $651.59 · official $651.60 (match) · 103 history records