Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:36:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbcf4…5667 crypto 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$2 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%27W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day35.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -3.6% -12.7% 57% 55% -12.2%
≤30d 47 -3.6% -12.7% 57% 55% -12.2%
≤90d 47 -3.6% -12.7% 57% 55% -12.2%
all 47 -3.6% -12.7% 57% 55% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 55% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 43% -20.6%
15% -28.7% 28% -28.3%
20% -35.7% 21% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses27 / 20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)47 / 49
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day35.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $6 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 126 history records