Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:41:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbcf3…b8ef sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-12%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$7
sports 47% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-47.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -42.1% -47.6% 25% 25% -15.9%
≤30d 4 -42.1% -47.6% 25% 25% -15.9%
≤90d 4 -42.1% -47.6% 25% 25% -15.9%
all 4 -42.1% -47.6% 25% 25% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.6% 25% -15.9%
10% -52.6% 25% -23.9%
15% -57.2% 25% -31.3%
20% -61.4% 0% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$5 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage3d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-6.5) Jun 18 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $36 −$7 -18%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-6.5) SELL Minnesota Lynx 100¢ $30 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $4 5h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-6.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 66¢ $20 5h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $24 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Will Gh BUY 6¢ $3 19h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 19h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 30h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 30h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 31h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $36 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records