Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:37:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbcf0…9604 crypto 123 markets active 7h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (763 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,873 (+8%) realized +$5,873 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%68W / 55L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$608per market
Trades / day762.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$4,178
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (763 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 123 +10.1% -0.4% 55% 53% -5.9%
≤30d 123 +10.1% -0.4% 55% 53% -5.9%
≤90d 123 +10.1% -0.4% 55% 53% -5.9%
all 123 +10.1% -0.4% 55% 53% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover762.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.4% 53% -5.9%
10% -9.9% 52% -14.9%
15% ← realistic here -18.6% 45% -23.1%
20% -26.6% 30% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$862) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
19.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$401 vs −$420 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5,873
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses68 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)123 / 123
History coverage4d
Avg bet$608
Trades / day762.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 123 Trades
no open positions (51 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $362 +$248 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $354 +$72 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $379 −$361 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $672 −$645 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $459 +$337 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $509 +$167 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $543 −$522 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $611 −$585 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $240 +$221 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $252 +$202 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $175 +$159 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $184 −$176 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $546 +$399 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $2,311 +$663 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $160 +$70 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $1,057 +$382 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $903 +$449 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $821 +$323 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $792 −$775 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $903 +$240 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $763 +$384 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $107 −$100 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $962 −$365 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $1,068 +$916 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $281 +$237 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $596 +$350 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $389 +$139 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $1,822 +$2,349 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $273 +$72 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $48 −$44 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $781 −$757 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $261 −$15 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $49 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $70 −$65 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $1,047 −$781 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $1,140 +$438 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $1,165 −$1,116 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $1,318 +$396 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $403 +$162 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $210 +$72 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $265 +$1,288 +486%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $129 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $180 +$18 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $1,125 +$689 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $523 −$500 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $12 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $32 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $30 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $27 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $27 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $35 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $11 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $122 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $11 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $12 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $40 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $40 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $110 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $12 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $19 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $9 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $9 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $362 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $354 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $367 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $12 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.11 · official $0.00 (match) · 3260 history records