Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:43:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BC 0xbce9…efef crypto 89 markets active 6d ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$24 (-0%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate92%74W / 6L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 35% −$4
sports 32% −$4
other 17% −$17
politics 16% +$2
tech 1% $0
economics 0% +$2
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 12 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 52 +0.3% -9.3% 98% 0% -9.6%
all 80 -0.1% -9.6% 92% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 2% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 1% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 1% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses74 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)80 / 89
History coverage141d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-0%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Will MiniMax have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 86¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 82¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Jun 10 $15 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 10 $11 $0 +1%
Will Meta have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? Jun 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 29? Jun 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? May 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? May 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in April? May 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? May 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 16? May 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 15? May 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? Apr 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 7? Apr 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on April 9? Apr 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 8? Apr 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on April 3? Apr 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 2? Apr 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 07 $14 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 2? Apr 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 3? Apr 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $2,983 −$3 -0%
X banned in U.K. by March 31? Apr 02 $12 $0 +3%
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? Apr 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 28? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 29? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on March 27? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 20? Mar 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 21? Mar 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 20? Mar 28 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 March 16-22? Mar 28 $15 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 28 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 11? Mar 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on March 12? Mar 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on March 11? Mar 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 12? Mar 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 10? Mar 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 10? Mar 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on March 13? Mar 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on March 13? Mar 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,400 on March 14? Mar 20 $5 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 10? Mar 20 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MiniMax have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 6d
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? BUY No 100¢ $15 6d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $12 6d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 20d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $13 20d
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $25 20d
Will Meta have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 27d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $11 27d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 27d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 33d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 33d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 33d
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $26 46d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 63d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $15 63d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $12 63d
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? BUY No 100¢ $12 63d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $10 70d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $10 70d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $14 70d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $13 70d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on April 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 70d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $12 70d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $11 75d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $13 75d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $14 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.11 · official $88.11 (match) · 244 history records