Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:47:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbce8…4c24 crypto 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (137 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate68%23W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day137.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (137 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +0.1% -9.4% 68% 59% -14.4%
≤30d 34 +0.1% -9.4% 68% 59% -14.4%
≤90d 34 +0.1% -9.4% 68% 59% -14.4%
all 34 +0.1% -9.4% 68% 59% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover137.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 59% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 29% -22.6%
15% -26.0% 9% -30.1%
20% -33.3% 3% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses23 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage1d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day137.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$11 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$4 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$5 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $4 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $4 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 189 history records