Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:09:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbce7…896c other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%10W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$66
sports 16% +$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -9.2% -17.8% 67% 33% -10.5%
≤30d 15 -9.2% -17.8% 67% 33% -10.5%
≤90d 15 -9.2% -17.8% 67% 33% -10.5%
all 15 -9.2% -17.8% 67% 33% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 33% -10.5%
10% -25.7% 33% -19.0%
15% -32.9% 7% -26.8%
20% -39.5% 7% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$37 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses10 / 5
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage3d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $53 $52 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $198 +$12 +6%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $192 +$6 +3%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $190 +$2 +1%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$9 -17%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $121 +$79 +65%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $182 −$89 -49%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $191 +$44 +23%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $60 +$14 +23%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$7 -74%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $60 +$4 +6%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $28 +$6 +23%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $19 +$6 +29%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $81 −$64 -79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $54 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 94¢ $198 8h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 97¢ $192 11h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 99¢ $190 14h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $9 14h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 14h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 14h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 14h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 14h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $10 14h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 14h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 14h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 14h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 14h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 14h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $199 16h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $23 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 32¢ $0 17h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $97 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 36¢ $92 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 29h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $187 29h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 30h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 30h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $70 30h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 30h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 30h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $13 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.50 · official $52.50 (match) · 60 history records