Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:10:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BC
0xbce5…f141
crypto · 37 markets active 0h ago
4.0score
+$75 +18%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$54 · open −$17
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$34
Realized+$54
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses18 / 13
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)31 / 37
History coverage7d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 5 History 31 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days+$54
14 days+$54
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 55¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Curaçao 52¢ 46¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Down 36¢ 6¢ $20 $3 −$17 (-85%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $69 $0 −$69 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$23 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $33 −$32 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$12 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $13 +$15 +111%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$30 +142%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $18 −$17 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$8 +159%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$8 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $70 −$69 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$8 +83%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $11 +$12 +105%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 +$5 +262%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $4 +$4 +91%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $6 +$4 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -96%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$59 +382%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 $0 -8%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 12 $10 −$1 -13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$10 +490%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$10 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$5 +228%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$16 +756%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 +$4 +83%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $5 +$6 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 55% +$6
other 33% +$5
sports 12% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $21 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $7 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $21 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $12 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $21 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $13 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 52¢ $10 10h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 10h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 10h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 10h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 11h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 11h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 11h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 11h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+71.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +89.5% +71.4% 58% 58% +5.0%
≤30d 31 +89.5% +71.4% 58% 58% +5.0%
≤90d 31 +89.5% +71.4% 58% 58% +5.0%
all 31 +89.5% +71.4% 58% 58% +5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +71.4% 58% +5.0%
10% +55.0% 58% -5.1%
15% +40.1% 58% -14.2%
20% +26.3% 58% -22.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.55 · official $43.00 · 81 history records