Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:25:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
BC 0xbce4…ddc9 sports 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$180 (+16%) realized +$182 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate84%16W / 3L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$59
14 days+$94
30 days+$319
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$202
world 8% −$32
other 3% +$3
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +32.3% +19.7% 100% 100% +19.7%
≤30d 4 +68.5% +52.5% 100% 100% +50.5%
≤90d 15 +14.7% +3.8% 80% 60% +8.4%
all 19 +12.8% +2.1% 84% 53% +7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.1% 53% +7.4%
10% -7.7% 37% -2.9%
15% -16.6% 26% -12.3%
20% -24.8% 16% -20.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$69 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$143
Realized+$182
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses16 / 3
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage169d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: United States (-1.5) United States 35¢ 34¢ $145 $143 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $183 +$59 +32%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $76 +$35 +46%
Roland Garros ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Jurij Rodionov May 25 $104 +$39 +38%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 23 $117 +$186 +158%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 15 $98 −$96 -99%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 15 $42 +$25 +60%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90%? May 09 $7 +$1 +19%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? May 09 $10 +$1 +13%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee May 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? May 09 $12 +$1 +10%
Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 May 09 $14 $0 +1%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 15, 2026? May 09 $11 +$12 +117%
Thunder vs. Suns May 09 $73 +$19 +26%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 28 $64 −$63 -100%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 16 $47 −$47 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 03 $15 +$3 +20%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $220 end of January? Feb 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will no one dissent the January Fed decision? Feb 03 $20 $0 +2%
Nothing Ever Happens: Nuclear Edition Jan 10 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.79 · official $142.83 (match) · 36 history records