Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:02:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BC
0xbce2…0ab4
sports · 811 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
+$17,445 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$17,222 · open +$223
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11,639
Realized+$17,222
Unrealized+$223
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses778 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$665
Open positions8
Markets (closed)803 / 811
History coverage65d
Avg bet$4,900
Trades / day40.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 8 History 803 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,399
7 days+$13,203
14 days+$14,761
30 days+$15,869
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Haiti (-2.5) Scotland 99¢ 99¢ $4,750 $4,738 −$12 (-0%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Over 95¢ 95¢ $3,636 $3,623 −$13 (-0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $480 $780 +$300 (+62%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $564 $562 −$2 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $545 $528 −$18 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $520 $515 −$5 (-1%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $501 $483 −$18 (-4%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $420 $410 −$10 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 14 $46,274 +$1,547 +3%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 13 $4,324 +$39 +1%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $29,546 +$388 +1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $12,985 +$409 +3%
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) Jun 13 $3,737 +$33 +1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $3,470 +$35 +1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $17,822 +$1,104 +6%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $23,862 +$595 +2%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $2,785 −$2,785 -100%
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5) Jun 13 $2,861 +$49 +2%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $2,927 +$73 +2%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 13 $438 +$4 +1%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1,132 +$21 +2%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 12 $10,188 +$184 +2%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $3,584 +$216 +6%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) Jun 12 $4,197 +$78 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $826 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $18,757 +$35 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $368 +$1 +0%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 12 $5,014 +$154 +3%
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) Jun 12 $4,997 +$220 +4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3,454 +$546 +16%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $25,737 +$933 +4%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 11 $8,567 +$169 +2%
Spread: South Africa (-2.5) Jun 11 $2,681 +$11 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $11,926 +$39 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $4,830 +$15 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $755 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $4,036 +$8 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $1,043 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $42,593 +$120 +0%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $4,113 +$539 +13%
Spread: Bolivia (-1.5) Jun 11 $2,425 +$40 +2%
Spread: Bolivia (-2.5) Jun 11 $30 $0 +1%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $2,106 +$81 +4%
Spread: Nigeria (-1.5) Jun 10 $1,678 +$22 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $10,891 +$50 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $7,757 +$39 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $763 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $1,959 +$9 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $3,350 +$13 +0%
Will Iceland win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $33,031 +$703 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $2,522 +$378 +15%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $5,365 +$274 +5%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $2,281 +$119 +5%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 10 $3,101 +$99 +3%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $3,127 +$483 +15%
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $3,280 +$120 +4%
Will Angola win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1,430 +$68 +5%
Will Central African Republic win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $680 +$9 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 63% +$7,750
sports 19% −$8,598
other 18% +$17,751
world 0% +$542
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $243 0m
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $531 1m
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $2,867 3m
Spread: Haiti (-2.5) BUY Scotland 99¢ $1,276 5m
Spread: Haiti (-2.5) BUY Scotland 99¢ $2,123 7m
Spread: Haiti (-2.5) BUY Scotland 99¢ $1,352 31m
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Brazil 100¢ $9,450 58m
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Brazil 100¢ $9,990 1h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) SELL Brazil 100¢ $4 1h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) SELL Brazil 100¢ $1 1h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) SELL Brazil 100¢ $2,867 1h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) SELL Brazil 100¢ $125 1h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) SELL Brazil 100¢ $1,366 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Brazil 98¢ $230 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Brazil 98¢ $1,056 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Brazil 97¢ $989 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Brazil 98¢ $604 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Brazil 98¢ $371 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Brazil 97¢ $484 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Brazil 97¢ $3,201 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Brazil 97¢ $7,203 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Brazil 97¢ $6,251 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Brazil 97¢ $3,464 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Brazil 97¢ $4,520 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Brazil 96¢ $169 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Brazil 96¢ $1,387 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Brazil 97¢ $1,844 2h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Brazil 96¢ $5,785 2h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Brazil 96¢ $24 2h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Brazil 96¢ $1,920 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 +1.9% -7.8% 98% 10% -7.7%
≤30d 330 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 5% -8.8%
≤90d 803 -0.3% -9.8% 97% 4% -9.1%
all 803 -0.3% -9.8% 97% 4% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover40.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 4% -9.1%
10% -18.4% 0% -17.8%
15% ← realistic here -26.3% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,638.68 · official $11,638.68 (match) · 3500 history records