Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:37:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BC 0xbce1…4e0e other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized −$16 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$517now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$36
sports 10% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-33.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -26.2% -33.2% 0% 0% -33.2%
≤30d 1 -26.2% -33.2% 0% 0% -33.2%
≤90d 1 -26.2% -33.2% 0% 0% -33.2%
all 1 -26.2% -33.2% 0% 0% -33.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.2% 0% -33.2%
10% -39.6% 0% -39.6%
15% -45.4% 0% -45.4%
20% -50.8% 0% -50.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$54 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$517
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1 / 5
History coverage4d
Avg bet$204
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $300 $301 +$1 (+0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 21¢ $200 $217 +$17 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $206 −$54 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $205 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $307 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $152 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 6.5 AND Wil BUY 35¢ $100 10h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? A BUY 34¢ $204 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $206 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $517.38 · official $517.38 (match) · 10 history records