Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:01:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbcdd…c0b2 other 48 markets active 21h ago coverage 219d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1 (+1%) realized +$0 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%6W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$32
sports 33% +$35
politics 11% +$8
crypto 5% −$6
world 2% −$3
economics 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +43.3% +29.7% 21% 21% -27.8%
≤30d 19 +43.3% +29.7% 21% 21% -27.8%
≤90d 19 +43.3% +29.7% 21% 21% -27.8%
all 31 +4.2% -5.7% 19% 19% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 19% -10.0%
10% -14.8% 19% -18.7%
15% -23.0% 19% -26.5%
20% -30.5% 19% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -66% → late +70% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$2 · ×4.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

219d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses6 / 25
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions17
Markets (closed)31 / 48
History coverage219d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 14¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+201%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+24%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-19%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-22%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$7 +344%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$11 +1091%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 −$6 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$4 +291%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$12 +596%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Rockets vs. Suns Nov 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will XRP reach $4.20 in November? Nov 24 $1 −$1 -80%
Pacers vs. Cavaliers Nov 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? Nov 10 $10 +$12 +117%
Will Trump win FIFA Peace Prize? Nov 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in November? Nov 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in November? Nov 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Kingdom Come: Deliverance II win Game of the Year at the 2025 Gam Nov 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Nov 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in November? Nov 09 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $9 +$15 +170%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $2 21h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 21h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $5 21h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 27h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 27h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 27h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 39h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $12 39h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $4 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $2 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 6d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 6d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $2 6d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 6d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $2 6d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $3 6d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.76 · official $40.76 (match) · 60 history records