Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:07:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BC 0xbcd6…f3c8 sports 162 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,101 (+11%) realized +$479 · open +$622
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%65W / 62L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$5,282now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$13
14 days+$380
30 days+$380
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% +$1,149
sports 22% −$117
other 6% −$35
politics 0% −$7
tech 0% +$11
crypto 0% +$1
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 125 +9.8% -0.7% 50% 50% -10.2%
≤30d 127 +9.7% -0.7% 51% 50% -2.6%
≤90d 127 +9.7% -0.7% 51% 50% -2.6%
all 127 +9.7% -0.7% 51% 50% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.7% 50% -2.6%
10% -10.2% 45% -11.9%
15% -18.9% 42% -20.4%
20% -26.9% 37% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 43% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$11 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$5,282
Realized+$479
Unrealized+$622
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses65 / 62
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions35
Markets (closed)127 / 162
History coverage16d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 81¢ 98¢ $3,584 $4,343 +$759 (+21%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $96 $96 +$0 (+0%)
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Yes 59¢ 72¢ $66 $81 +$15 (+23%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 69¢ $55 $72 +$17 (+31%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? No 88¢ 84¢ $74 $71 −$3 (-4%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 56¢ 37¢ $100 $66 −$34 (-34%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $64 $65 +$2 (+2%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 69¢ 94¢ $32 $44 +$12 (+37%)
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 87¢ 86¢ $41 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026 No 55¢ 77¢ $29 $40 +$11 (+39%)
Will Egypt reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 57¢ 60¢ $35 $36 +$2 (+4%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 72¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-2%)
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 43¢ 40¢ $38 $35 −$3 (-8%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 62¢ $32 $34 +$1 (+4%)
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? Yes 63¢ 76¢ $27 $33 +$5 (+20%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 71¢ 30¢ $59 $25 −$34 (-58%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $77-$84 in June? No 88¢ 91¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+3%)
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Saudi Arabia 84¢ 84¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $21 $18 −$3 (-13%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? Yes 67¢ 24¢ $51 $18 −$33 (-65%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 86¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Chicago Cubs 70¢ 40¢ $30 $17 −$13 (-42%)
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Over 30¢ 22¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-25%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 26 $46 +$10 +23%
Piracicaba: Maximo Zeitune vs Nicolas Zanellato Jun 26 $4 +$5 +152%
Piracicaba: Luis Felipe Miguel vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Jun 26 $203 +$32 +16%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $13 +$44 +335%
Rainbow Six Siege: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North America Leag Jun 25 $63 −$62 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $30 −$30 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 25 $7 +$9 +138%
Set 1 Winner: Dimitrov vs Fokina Jun 25 $5 +$1 +22%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Tereza Valentova Jun 25 $37 +$23 +61%
Set Handicap: Volynets (-1.5) vs Jeanjean (+1.5) Jun 25 $8 +$10 +127%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katie Volynets vs Leolia Jeanjean Jun 25 $7 +$25 +354%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Quentin Halys Jun 25 $4 −$3 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Soon-Woo Kwon Jun 25 $6 +$3 +57%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym Jun 25 $36 +$20 +56%
Plovdiv: Petr Nesterov vs Tommaso Compagnucci Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 25 $42 +$18 +44%
Mallorca Championships: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Fabian Marozsan Jun 25 $8 +$9 +109%
Piracicaba: Thiago Cigarran vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Anastasia Gasanova Jun 25 $7 +$7 +109%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Teodora Kostovic vs Lin Zhu Jun 25 $3 +$5 +188%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Remy Bertola Jun 25 $2 +$6 +365%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Oliver Tarvet vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 25 $5 +$2 +52%
Plovdiv: Sandro Kopp vs Dali Blanch Jun 25 $3 +$4 +146%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yi Zhou vs Billy Harris Jun 25 $10 +$6 +67%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katarzyna Kawa vs Kayla Day Jun 25 $32 +$21 +67%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 25 $11 +$10 +96%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Otto Virtanen Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Mallorca Championships: Grigor Dimitrov vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 25 $13 −$13 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Alina Charaeva Jun 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Madison Keys Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva Jun 25 $38 +$22 +58%
Targu Mures: Cezar Cretu vs Niels McDonald Jun 25 $16 +$11 +70%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Dusan Lajovic Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Samuel vs Cerundolo Jun 25 $6 +$7 +104%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 25 $17 −$16 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko Jun 25 $22 −$22 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Fiona Crawley Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Tomas Barrios Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. KT Wiz Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jan Choinski vs Zizou Bergs Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Ognjen Milic Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Harmony Tan vs Tyra Caterina Grant Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $12 +$13 +104%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Tabur vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 25 $16 +$17 +105%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $4 +$3 +83%
Valorant: ROSE vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Sta Jun 25 $39 +$11 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $2 7m
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $5 7m
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $27 7m
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $24 7m
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $3 7m
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $4 7m
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 70¢ $30 49m
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $36 58m
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Texas Rangers 81¢ $46 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? BUY No 88¢ $74 2h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 56¢ $102 3h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Sashi Esport 39¢ $11 3h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Sashi Esport 39¢ $3 3h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 35¢ $3 3h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 56¢ $17 3h
Valorant: 9z Team vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular S BUY 9z Team 29¢ $1 3h
Valorant: 9z Team vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular S BUY 9z Team 29¢ $3 3h
Valorant: 9z Team vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular S BUY 9z Team 29¢ $36 3h
Valorant: 9z Team vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular S BUY 9z Team 29¢ $1 3h
Valorant: 9z Team vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular S BUY 9z Team 29¢ $3 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko BUY Tatjana Maria 40¢ $3 5h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $77-$84 in June? BUY No 88¢ $4 5h
Rainbow Six Siege: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North America Leag BUY Shopify Rebellion 34¢ $63 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $31 6h
Piracicaba: Luis Felipe Miguel vs Thiago Seyboth Wild BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 86¢ $203 6h
Will Egypt reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 57¢ $35 6h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 56¢ $30 6h
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $32 7h
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Inaki Montes BUY Andres Santamarta 38¢ $3 8h
Piracicaba: Maximo Zeitune vs Nicolas Zanellato BUY Nicolas Zanellato 39¢ $4 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,282.25 · official $5,251.26 (match) · 284 history records