Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:32:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BC 0xbcd5…bd02 finance 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
RISKYcopy with care finance specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 97% −$12
other 2% +$22
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +164.1% +138.9% 50% 50% +293.7%
≤30d 2 +164.1% +138.9% 50% 50% +293.7%
≤90d 2 +164.1% +138.9% 50% 50% +293.7%
all 10 +19.1% +7.8% 60% 20% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.8% 20% -1.9%
10% -2.6% 20% -11.3%
15% -12.0% 20% -19.9%
20% -20.6% 20% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +335% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage148d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 +$22 +428%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 27? Jan 27 $9 $0 +4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 27? Jan 27 $10 $0 +4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 26? Jan 26 $6 $0 +7%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 26? Jan 23 $6 −$6 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 23? Jan 23 $96 −$5 -5%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 23? Jan 23 $70 −$10 -14%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 22? Jan 22 $13 +$7 +54%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 21? Jan 21 $13 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 23¢ $27 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 34h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 27? SELL Down 47¢ $9 141d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 27? SELL Down 51¢ $10 141d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 27? BUY Down 45¢ $9 142d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 27? BUY Down 49¢ $10 142d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 26? SELL Down 69¢ $7 142d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 26? BUY Down 64¢ $6 145d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 26? BUY Down 62¢ $6 145d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 23? SELL Down 50¢ $5 145d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 23? BUY Down 20¢ $2 145d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 23? BUY Down 35¢ $4 145d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 23? SELL Up 65¢ $29 145d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 23? BUY Up 43¢ $4 145d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 23? BUY Up 70¢ $24 145d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 23? SELL Down 31¢ $6 145d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 23? BUY Down 25¢ $5 145d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 23? SELL Down 33¢ $10 145d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 23? BUY Down 31¢ $9 145d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 23? SELL Down 40¢ $16 145d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 23? BUY Down 56¢ $22 145d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 23? SELL Up 25¢ $11 145d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 23? BUY Up 22¢ $10 145d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 23? SELL Down 78¢ $35 145d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 23? BUY Down 75¢ $34 145d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 23? SELL Up 35¢ $3 145d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 23? SELL Up 36¢ $12 145d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 23? SELL Up 38¢ $13 145d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 23? BUY Up 73¢ $26 145d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 35 history records