Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:03:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BC
0xbcd3…453c
sports · 44 markets active 6h ago
0.0score
−$70 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$69 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$37
Realized−$69
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses15 / 23
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions6
Markets (closed)38 / 44
History coverage13d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 6 History 38 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$24
14 days−$69
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Chicago Cubs 48¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Main Card) Deiveson Figueiredo 18¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Washington Mystics Washington Mystics 19¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 107.5 Under 49¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 78¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Atlanta Dream vs. PortlandFire: O/U 162.5 Over 19¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Goncalo Ramos: Anytime Goalscorer Yes 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners Arizona Diamondbacks 39¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets Miami Marlins 18¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Virtus Bologna vs. Reyer Venezia Virtus Bologna 73¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Gabriel Jesus: Anytime Goalscorer Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-05-30? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners Arizona Diamondbacks 35¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Bradley Barcola: Anytime Goalscorer Yes 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros Houston Astros 46¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Over 54¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 204.5 Under 27¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Atlanta Dream vs. PortlandFire PortlandFire 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $9 $0 -5%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$25 +165%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $55 −$55 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $39 +$16 +42%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $34 +$5 +13%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 03 $25 +$9 +38%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $10 +$15 +146%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $20 +$4 +21%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 31 $30 −$30 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 May 31 $30 −$30 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $60 +$57 +94%
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 107.5 May 31 $4 −$4 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 204.5 May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Madison Keys May 30 $8 +$9 +106%
Virtus Bologna vs. Reyer Venezia May 30 $30 −$25 -83%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $10 +$23 +226%
Gabriel Jesus: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Bradley Barcola: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Goncalo Ramos: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $15 −$15 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Camila Osorio May 30 $25 +$4 +14%
Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $15 +$10 +64%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 30 $50 −$34 -69%
Nagoya Grampus vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 2.5 May 30 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies May 30 $35 +$24 +68%
Atlanta Dream vs. PortlandFire May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros May 30 $58 −$55 -95%
Atlanta Dream vs. PortlandFire: O/U 162.5 May 30 $4 −$4 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 May 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 30 $10 +$15 +143%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 30 $11 +$37 +325%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 30 $10 +$21 +204%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Washington Mystics May 30 $15 −$15 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 84% −$84
other 16% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 5h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 5h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 45¢ $9 5h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 24¢ $9 5h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $9 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 6h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 6h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 78¢ $55 8d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 100¢ $55 8d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 91¢ $29 8d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 42¢ $10 8d
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Chicago White Sox 88¢ $34 8d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 100¢ $34 9d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 72¢ $25 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 11d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 11d
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Chicago Cubs 48¢ $10 11d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Detroit Tigers 40¢ $10 11d
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 11d
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Chicago Cubs 48¢ $20 11d
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 11d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 39¢ $10 11d
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 107.5 BUY Under 49¢ $4 12d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 55¢ $44 12d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 204.5 BUY Under 26¢ $5 12d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 204.5 BUY Under 28¢ $5 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +50.5% +36.1% 33% 33% +52.8%
≤30d 38 -11.7% -20.1% 39% 39% -17.5%
≤90d 38 -11.7% -20.1% 39% 39% -17.5%
all 38 -11.7% -20.1% 39% 39% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 39% -17.5%
10% -27.7% 32% -25.4%
15% -34.7% 32% -32.6%
20% -41.1% 26% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.52 · official $36.52 (match) · 79 history records