Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:46:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BC 0xbcd2…43f3 sports 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$288 (+0%) realized +$741 · open −$453
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%22W / 36L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,256per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$935est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$5,410now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 113d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$2,547
other 17% −$548
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +13.3% +2.5% 25% 25% -18.0%
≤30d 39 -9.1% -17.8% 36% 36% -12.3%
≤90d 42 -9.2% -17.8% 36% 36% -11.7%
all 58 -10.2% -18.7% 38% 38% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 38% -11.7%
10% -26.5% 36% -20.1%
15% -33.6% 29% -27.8%
20% -40.1% 24% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$1,792) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -18% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,025 vs −$700 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$5,410
Realized+$741
Unrealized−$453
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses22 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$935
Open positions3
Markets (closed)58 / 61
History coverage113d
Avg bet$1,256
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $3,789 $3,306 −$483 (-13%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 30¢ 32¢ $1,000 $1,083 +$83 (+8%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 48¢ $1,074 $1,021 −$53 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,031 −$2,000 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2,333 −$30 -1%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,136 −$503 -44%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,792 −$772 -43%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,021 +$2,312 +226%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,199 −$371 -31%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $1,018 +$1,482 +146%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $3,000 −$1,389 -46%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 10 $71 +$22 +31%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $2,500 +$2,500 +100%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 10 $1,000 +$2,449 +245%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 10 $316 +$86 +27%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $2,544 +$3,524 +138%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $2,500 −$1,801 -72%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 05 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $2,950 −$1,993 -68%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 04 $1,019 −$1,000 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 04 $15 −$15 -99%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 04 $548 −$540 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $2,372 −$11 -0%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 04 $922 −$110 -12%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $2,344 +$1,120 +48%
Connecticut Sun vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 03 $853 +$92 +11%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 02 $115 +$95 +83%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 30 $511 −$180 -35%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $2,035 −$2,000 -98%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5) May 28 $509 −$500 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 26 $71 +$23 +32%
PortlandFire vs. New York Liberty May 25 $560 −$557 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Terence Atmane May 25 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $4,053 +$3,090 +76%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? May 24 $1,872 −$1,557 -83%
Brand Risk Promotions 14: Johnny Manziel vs. Bob Menery May 24 $1,585 +$922 +58%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $5,655 −$2,053 -36%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $352 −$20 -6%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) May 23 $510 −$500 -98%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) May 23 $508 −$500 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 22 $3,836 −$374 -10%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score May 19 $1,007 +$275 +27%
Hamburg European Open: Zizou Bergs vs Arthur Gea May 18 $51 −$2 -5%
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. AS Monaco FC: Both Teams to Score May 18 $1,800 +$671 +37%
Pelicans vs. Knicks Mar 25 $500 −$313 -62%
Spread: Rockets (-5.5) Mar 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-1.5) Mar 04 $500 −$75 -15%
Spread: Celtics (-8.5) Mar 02 $12 −$12 -100%
Bucks vs. Bulls Mar 01 $500 −$500 -100%
Spread: Bucks (-4.5) Mar 01 $500 −$500 -100%
Spread: Bucks (-3.5) Mar 01 $500 −$500 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NRG (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 01 $500 +$480 +96%
Spread: Hornets (-7.5) Feb 28 $500 +$409 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $2,031 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1,090 15h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 30¢ $1,021 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 53¢ $2,303 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $51 38h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $2,282 38h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 30¢ $633 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 SELL Over 37¢ $1,020 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $1,787 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $4 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $1,136 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1,021 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 38¢ $828 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $894 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $121 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $14 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $1 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $5 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $1 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $63 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $4 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $6 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $1 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $2 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $86 4d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 40¢ $1,018 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 22¢ $1,611 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 40¢ $3,000 6d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 76¢ $71 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,410.28 · official $5,410.28 (match) · 210 history records