Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:47:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbccc…bcb9 politics 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 373d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%8W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$7
politics 30% −$4
sports 15% −$2
economics 6% −$1
culture 6% −$3
crypto 3% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -3.8% -12.9% 0% 0% -12.9%
≤30d 4 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 5 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.2%
all 84 -7.2% -16.0% 10% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -24.1% 0% -18.5%
15% -31.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -38.1% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

373d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses8 / 76
Open positions2
Markets (closed)84 / 86
History coverage373d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $49 −$2 -4%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $102 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $47 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $48 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $103 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 27 $47 $0 +0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 15 $48 $0 -0%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 05 $48 $0 +0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 28 $49 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 26 $49 $0 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 24 $47 $0 -0%
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? Jan 21 $48 $0 +0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 20 $50 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on January 16? Jan 17 $47 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 13 $47 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 11 $1 $0 -50%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 09 $49 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 08 $49 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 07 $3 −$1 -17%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 06 $2 −$1 -41%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 06 $97 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 03 $48 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 02 $3 $0 -10%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 01 $98 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 30 $2 $0 -17%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 29 $49 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 28 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 26 $51 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 24 $50 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on December 15? Dec 16 $49 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $51 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 11 $102 $0 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 07 $52 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 05 $52 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 04 $51 $0 -0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 01 $52 $0 -1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 29 $50 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Nov 27 $51 $0 +0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 25 $51 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Nov 24 $53 $0 -0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 22 $105 $0 -0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 20 $53 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $1 $0 -42%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 16 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 13 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 11 $57 −$1 -2%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 08 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 03 $1 $0 -23%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 02 $54 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $48 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 88¢ $48 41h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $49 6d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $48 8d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $48 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 14d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $47 14d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $47 15d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 15d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 16d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $48 16d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $48 19d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $49 43d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $49 105d
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $47 111d
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $47 119d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $48 123d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $48 129d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY Yes 100¢ $48 138d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $49 141d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 143d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $49 143d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 145d
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $47 146d
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $47 147d
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 149d
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? BUY No 100¢ $48 150d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on January 16? BUY No 100¢ $47 153d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $49 154d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $49 156d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.72 · official $47.72 (match) · 395 history records