Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:39:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbccb…a440 crypto 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$67 (+3%) realized +$97 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate66%25W / 13L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day45.3pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$51
other 3% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -2.9% -12.1% 66% 50% -6.2%
≤30d 38 -2.9% -12.1% 66% 50% -6.2%
≤90d 38 -2.9% -12.1% 66% 50% -6.2%
all 38 -2.9% -12.1% 66% 50% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 50% -6.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 45% -15.2%
15% -28.2% 34% -23.4%
20% -35.2% 26% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$15 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$97
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses25 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage2d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day45.3
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Up 77¢ 48¢ $77 $48 −$30 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $195 +$5 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$12 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$8 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$4 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$6 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$9 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $22 +$18 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$20 +104%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$7 +60%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $34 −$14 -41%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $180 +$20 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$12 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $212 +$32 +15%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $58 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $587 +$33 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$6 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $65 +$35 +53%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $28 +$12 +43%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$7 +55%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $41 −$39 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $49 +$11 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $27 +$6 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $11 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +101%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $594 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $40 −$18 -46%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $79 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 9m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $96 9m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $14 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $16 48m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $21 56m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $16 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $12 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $7 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $13 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $16 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $13 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $14 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $32 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $148 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $9 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $13 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $60 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $75 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $65 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $12 18h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 18h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 18h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $18 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $12 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.50 · official $47.50 (match) · 97 history records