Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:19:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BC 0xbccb…8ae4 other 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 548d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$48 (-11%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$48
other 20% $0
politics 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 32 -3.8% -13.0% 0% 0% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 0% -19.8%
10% -21.3% 0% -27.5%
15% -28.9% 0% -34.5%
20% -35.9% 0% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$3 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

548d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage548d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Aug 13 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 21 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Giants win the 2026 NFC Championship? Jul 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jul 19 $9 $0 -0%
Brighton & Hove Albion wins the Premier League? Jul 14 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -20%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 15 $0 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 -0%
West Ham United wins the Premier League? Jun 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 06 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? May 19 $6 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? May 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2025? May 09 $6 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2025? Apr 22 $6 $0 -0%
Flyers vs. Sabres Apr 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Sporting CP win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 09 $119 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2025? Mar 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 22 $1 $0 +0%
Bournemouth wins the Premier League? Jan 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 28 $0 $0 +0%
Will Sparta Prague win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 15 $55 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $5 1h
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5 21d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 21d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $5 49d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $5 49d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 112d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 112d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 112d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 143d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 143d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 143d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 97¢ $5 201d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 97¢ $5 201d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 232d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 232d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 232d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $4 254d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 254d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 256d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 294d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 294d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 294d
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $6 306d
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $6 306d
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $5 330d
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $5 330d
Will the Giants win the 2026 NFC Championship? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 332d
Will the Giants win the 2026 NFC Championship? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 332d
Will the Giants win the 2026 NFC Championship? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 332d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 97 history records