Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:28:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbcc3…b86d other 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate56%44W / 34L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 36% −$5
other 26% −$6
politics 24% −$3
economics 12% −$2
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% +$2
culture 0% −$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +4.2% -5.8% 100% 33% -1.3%
≤30d 15 +0.9% -8.7% 80% 7% -6.0%
≤90d 35 +11.1% +0.5% 86% 6% -8.6%
all 78 -13.6% -21.9% 56% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 4% -9.6%
10% -29.3% 3% -18.3%
15% -36.2% 1% -26.2%
20% -42.4% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -27% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses44 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)78 / 85
History coverage163d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $92 +$10 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in May? Jun 06 $17 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On Jun 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? Jun 06 $17 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in May? Jun 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will Broadcom be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1400-1439 tweets in May 2026? Jun 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in May? Jun 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 11? May 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 12? May 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on May 13? May 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? May 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? May 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? May 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? May 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? May 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Calgary Flames win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 10 $780 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Apr 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Apr 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Apr 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? Apr 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will Delroy Lindo win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards Mar 21 $13 −$1 -4%
Hurricanes vs. Flames Mar 21 $1 +$4 +376%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 8? Mar 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 8? Mar 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will CF Monterrey win on 2026-03-07? Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Sacramento State Hornets vs. Idaho Vandals Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Utah Valley Wolverines vs. Utah Tech Trailblazers Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
UCLA Bruins vs. USC Trojans Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Northwestern Wildcats vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Western Carolina Catamounts vs. Mercer Bears Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers vs. Siena Saints Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Elon Phoenix vs. William & Mary Tribe Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Auburn Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Senators vs. Kraken Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Islanders vs. Sharks Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Dallas win on 2026-03-07? Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portland Timbers win on 2026-03-07? Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Warriors vs. Thunder Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 4? Mar 08 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $406 57m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $308 57m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $544 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $683 3h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $75 21h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 21h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $15 21h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $100 22h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 22h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $600 22h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 22h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 22h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 22h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 22h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 22h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 22h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $30 22h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 22h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $74 22h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 22h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 22h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 22h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $50 22h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $185 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 22h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 90¢ $92 22h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1,218 23h
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market BUY No 100¢ $18 11d
Will Baidu have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.49 · official $79.65 (match) · 205 history records