Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:18:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
BC 0xbcc3…f469 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$298 (+22%) realized +$298 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate67%8W / 4L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$146
other 41% −$181
crypto 8% +$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +17.1% +5.9% 67% 58% -7.3%
≤30d 12 +17.1% +5.9% 67% 58% -7.3%
≤90d 12 +17.1% +5.9% 67% 58% -7.3%
all 12 +17.1% +5.9% 67% 58% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.9% 58% -7.3%
10% -4.2% 58% -16.2%
15% -13.5% 58% -24.3%
20% -22.0% 58% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$90 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$298
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses8 / 4
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage4d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $525 +$9 +2%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $302 −$300 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$68 +67%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $20 +$16 +79%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$60 +60%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$14 +67%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$12 +119%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$53 +52%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $102 +$161 +158%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Colorado Rockies 96¢ $27 35m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 73¢ $20 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Colorado Rockies 67¢ $507 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 66¢ $505 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 80¢ $302 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 11h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 55¢ $20 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 3d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $10 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 4d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 66¢ $20 4d
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records