Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:06:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BC 0xbcc0…bd69 sports 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$97 (+13%) realized +$89 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$266now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$180
7 days−$180
14 days−$180
30 days+$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 +35.2% +22.3% 67% 67% +8.8%
≤90d 3 +35.2% +22.3% 67% 67% +8.8%
all 3 +35.2% +22.3% 67% 67% +8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.3% 67% +8.8%
10% +10.6% 67% -1.6%
15% -0.1% 67% -11.1%
20% -9.9% 67% -19.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$135 vs −$180 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$266
Realized+$89
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage27d
Avg bet$180
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 51¢ 50¢ $274 $266 −$8 (-3%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 73¢ 0¢ $180 $0 −$180 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $182 −$180 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $107 +$106 +100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $154 +$163 +106%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $279 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 73¢ $182 19h
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Spurs 99¢ $213 14d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 49¢ $107 14d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Spurs 70¢ $317 26d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 33¢ $154 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $266.43 · official $266.43 (match) · 6 history records