Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:41:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BC 0xbcbe…8ac8 politics 75 markets active 2h ago coverage 606d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$608 (-12%) realized −$618 · open +$10
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate48%34W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$330now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$45
14 days+$45
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$247
politics 26% −$225
crypto 18% +$99
world 12% −$274
sports 11% +$27
culture 4% +$18
economics 2% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +31.6% +19.1% 100% 50% +6.7%
≤30d 2 +31.6% +19.1% 100% 50% +6.7%
≤90d 2 +31.6% +19.1% 100% 50% +6.7%
all 71 -21.7% -29.2% 48% 37% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.2% 37% -21.7%
10% -36.0% 30% -29.2%
15% -42.2% 21% -36.0%
20% -47.8% 15% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% too few recent
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$50 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

606d coverage
Net worth$330
Realized−$618
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses34 / 37
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)71 / 75
History coverage606d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $200 $216 +$16 (+8%)
Will Kylian Mbappe score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 28¢ 33¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+18%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 3.5 Corners Under 61¢ 61¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 21¢ $20 $5 −$15 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $51 +$28 +55%
Will no player win a Calendar Grand Slam in 2026? Jun 15 $200 +$17 +9%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? Mar 03 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 03 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31? Mar 03 $100 +$26 +26%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Sevilla FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. SK Brann: Both Teams to Score Feb 28 $50 +$48 +96%
Will Harry Kane be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga seaso Feb 26 $100 +$10 +10%
Deportivo Alavés vs. Girona FC: Both Teams to Score Feb 23 $38 −$38 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 03 $100 +$37 +37%
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United? Jan 12 $28 −$6 -23%
Spread: Celtics (-5.5) Jan 12 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Trump pardon Diddy in 2025? Jan 01 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jan 01 $100 +$23 +24%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 10 $81 +$14 +18%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 10 $100 +$3 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 23 $100 +$8 +8%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo win The Bronx in the New York City Mayoral Democrati Sep 17 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in July? Sep 17 $50 +$43 +86%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Eric Adams drop out first? Sep 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Eric Adams drop out by September 30? Sep 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump pardon George Santos in 2025? Aug 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Andy Byron out as Astronomer CEO by next Friday? Jul 18 $100 −$100 -100%
US military action against Iran before July? Jul 12 $91 −$91 -100%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Jul 12 $77 +$24 +32%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jul 12 $20 +$134 +669%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin all time high in May? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Inter Milan win the Serie A? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
US-China trade deal before June? Jun 18 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $115k in May? Jun 18 $50 +$19 +39%
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before June? Jun 18 $50 +$28 +56%
Will the Knicks beat the Celtics 4-0 May 11 $100 +$17 +17%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? May 09 $50 +$11 +22%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? May 08 $50 +$19 +39%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Apr 30 $50 +$142 +285%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? Apr 30 $171 +$174 +102%
Will Solana dip to $140 by February 28 2025? Apr 24 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Alex Ovechkin break the scoring record this season? Apr 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Solana dip to $160 by February 28 2025? Apr 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? Apr 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Will $TRUMP hit $25B FDV by Sunday? Apr 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 24 $50 +$27 +54%
Will Solana hit $300 by January 31, 2025? Feb 01 $201 +$53 +26%
Todd Boehly removed as Chelsea Chairman? Jan 02 $50 +$24 +47%
Will Solana hit $250 in December? Jan 02 $100 +$10 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kylian Mbappe score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 28¢ $51 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 61¢ $51 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $51 13h
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? BUY No 30¢ $34 109d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? BUY No 38¢ $100 109d
Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31? SELL No 97¢ $126 109d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 81¢ $100 110d
Real Betis Balompié vs. Sevilla FC: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $50 110d
Bologna FC 1909 vs. SK Brann: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $50 113d
Will Harry Kane be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga seaso SELL Yes 94¢ $110 113d
Deportivo Alavés vs. Girona FC: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $38 116d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $100 116d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 151d
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United? SELL Yes 29¢ $21 158d
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United? BUY Yes 38¢ $28 158d
Spread: Celtics (-5.5) BUY Celtics 51¢ $43 158d
Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31? BUY No 77¢ $100 160d
Will no player win a Calendar Grand Slam in 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $200 162d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $100 162d
Will Harry Kane be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga seaso BUY Yes 86¢ $100 241d
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? BUY No 85¢ $81 253d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? BUY No 97¢ $100 253d
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? BUY Yes $5 275d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY No 93¢ $100 275d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY No 10¢ $10 275d
Will Eric Adams drop out first? BUY No 38¢ $50 278d
Will Eric Adams drop out by September 30? BUY No 62¢ $50 278d
Will Trump pardon George Santos in 2025? BUY No 85¢ $50 318d
Will Trump pardon Diddy in 2025? BUY No 90¢ $100 318d
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in July? BUY No 54¢ $50 325d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $330.16 · official $330.16 (match) · 163 history records