trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.9% | -8.7% | 100% | 0% | -8.7% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +0.6% | -8.9% | 100% | 0% | -9.0% |
| ≤90d | 8 | +0.4% | -9.1% | 100% | 0% | -9.2% |
| all | 11 | +0.4% | -9.1% | 100% | 0% | -9.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.1% | 0% | -9.2% |
| 10% | -17.8% | 0% | -17.8% |
| 15% | -25.8% | 0% | -25.8% |
| 20% | -33.0% | 0% | -33.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 99¢ | $110 | $110 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju | Jun 28 | $110 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? | Jun 07 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? | Jun 07 | $100 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be 78°F or higher on Apr | May 03 | $22 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 3? | May 03 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on April 3? | May 03 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 3? | May 03 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Katana FDV above $800M one day after launch? | Apr 02 | $112 | $0 | +0% |
| Will there be at least 1,300 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, | Mar 18 | $30 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Opinion launch a token by December 31, 2026? | Mar 18 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Seattle have more than 8 inches of precipitation in February? | Mar 18 | $41 | $0 | +0% |