Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:38:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbcbc…962e crypto 231 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$453 (-4%) realized −$453 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%77W / 154L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$15
14 days+$15
30 days−$854
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$1,794
sports 3% +$169
other 0% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-39.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -14.0% -22.2% 48% 48% -8.7%
≤30d 64 -43.4% -48.8% 30% 28% -26.9%
≤90d 231 -33.6% -39.9% 33% 31% -24.5%
all 231 -33.6% -39.9% 33% 31% -24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.9% 31% -24.5%
10% -45.6% 28% -31.7%
15% -50.9% 24% -38.3%
20% -55.7% 20% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$29 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$453
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses77 / 154
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)231 / 231
History coverage48d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 231 Trades
no open positions (126 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $80 −$77 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $190 −$111 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $94 −$90 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$84 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $135 +$65 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$35 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $72 −$70 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $48 +$23 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $43 +$61 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$39 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $63 −$44 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $44 +$44 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $44 −$43 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $145 +$96 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $171 +$126 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $110 +$61 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $30 −$19 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $76 −$74 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $49 +$26 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $57 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $70 −$5 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 20 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 20 $155 +$157 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 20 $131 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 20 $92 −$89 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 20 $145 −$5 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 20 $100 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 20 $27 −$26 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 20 $113 +$19 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 20 $92 −$40 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 19 $259 −$170 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 19 $170 −$49 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 19 $72 −$5 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 19 $157 −$104 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 19 $107 −$33 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 19 $122 −$63 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 19 $126 −$126 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 19 $142 +$35 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 19 $67 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 19 $67 −$5 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 19 $192 −$18 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 19 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 19 $45 −$43 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 19 $49 −$47 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 19 $80 −$10 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 19 $124 −$27 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 19 $55 +$39 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $80 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $80 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $96 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $94 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $83 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $188 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $135 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $135 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $88 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $7 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 769 history records