Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:58:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

BC 0xbcba…91ba other 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$88 (+11%) realized −$2 · open +$90

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip

Net edge-1%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%4W / 2L

Drawdown57%max

Avg bet$103per market

Trades / day0.8pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$390now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)-1.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+4.0%	-5.9%	60%	60%	-4.5%
≤30d	6	+9.3%	-1.1%	67%	67%	+1.2%
≤90d	6	+9.3%	-1.1%	67%	67%	+1.2%
all	6	+9.3%	-1.1%	67%	67%	+1.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-1.1%	67%	+1.2%
10%	-10.6%	50%	-8.4%
15%	-19.2%	50%	-17.3%
20%	-27.1%	17%	-25.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 32% · top 2 65% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +12% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +9% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$39 vs −$47 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage

Net worth$390

Realized−$2

Unrealized+$90

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses4 / 2

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions2

Markets (closed)6 / 8

History coverage18d

Avg bet$103

Trades / day0.8

Drawdown57%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	78¢	100¢	$200	$256	+$56 (+28%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	75¢	100¢	$100	$133	+$33 (+33%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw?	Jun 24	$51	−$36	-71%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$101	+$50	+50%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Jun 23	$61	+$50	+82%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$101	−$57	-56%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$100	+$16	+16%
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-09?	Jun 09	$111	+$39	+36%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw?	SELL Yes	9¢	$15	17m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	66¢	$51	1h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$51	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	75¢	$101	14h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	83¢	$151	14h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	100¢	$151	22h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$111	25h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	37¢	$44	26h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	BUY Yes	54¢	$61	26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	66¢	$101	35h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	83¢	$101	35h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	86¢	$100	35h
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-09?	SELL Yes	99¢	$150	15d
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-09?	BUY Yes	72¢	$111	18d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $389.62 · official $389.36 (match) · 15 history records