Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:29:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbcba…c54f crypto 400 markets active 3d ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$413 (-7%) realized −$413 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%221W / 179L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day24.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$74
14 days−$40
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$472
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +2.1% -7.6% 56% 56% -32.0%
≤30d 115 +4.6% -5.4% 56% 56% -15.1%
≤90d 400 +1.8% -7.9% 55% 55% -17.0%
all 400 +1.8% -7.9% 55% 55% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.9% 55% -17.0%
10% ← realistic here -16.7% 55% -25.0%
15% -24.8% 55% -32.2%
20% -32.1% 54% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$16 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$413
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses221 / 179
Open positions0
Markets (closed)400 / 400
History coverage56d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day24.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 400 Trades
no open positions (179 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $27 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$8 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$12 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$6 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$6 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $28 −$27 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$6 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1608 history records