Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:22:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
BC 0xbcba…04dd sports 177 markets active 1h ago coverage 732d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$466 (+5%) realized +$393 · open +$73
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%89W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$325now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$123
14 days+$439
30 days+$642
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$480
sports 41% −$44
crypto 5% +$37
world 3% −$53
finance 2% +$8
tech 1% +$47
politics 1% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +8.4% -2.0% 48% 48% +1.1%
≤30d 45 +3.9% -6.0% 53% 49% +6.5%
≤90d 98 -16.5% -24.4% 46% 44% -1.7%
all 169 -7.6% -16.4% 53% 50% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 50% -5.2%
10% -24.4% 46% -14.3%
15% -31.7% 38% -22.5%
20% -38.4% 27% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$31 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

732d coverage
Net worth$325
Realized+$393
Unrealized+$73
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses89 / 80
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions5
Markets (closed)169 / 177
History coverage732d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 44¢ $129 $163 +$34 (+26%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 54¢ 69¢ $50 $64 +$14 (+29%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Yan Diomande stay at RB Leipzig? Yes 33¢ $5 $33 +$28 (+567%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 24¢ 21¢ $18 $15 −$2 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $89 −$8 -9%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $25 +$38 +147%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$58 +114%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $30 +$31 +101%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 +$13 +124%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 +$137 +68%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $69 −$68 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $61 +$89 +146%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$22 +216%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$9 +47%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$15 -29%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $30 −$14 -44%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $51 −$24 -48%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $51 +$45 +90%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$14 -70%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $315 +$359 +114%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $101 +$42 +42%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $51 −$36 -71%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 +$34 +67%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 11 $50 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $101 +$58 +57%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $101 +$34 +34%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $310 +$16 +5%
Singapore vs. China PR: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Poland win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $203 −$200 -98%
Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Fukushima United FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $101 +$80 +79%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) May 31 $102 +$155 +152%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $101 +$87 +86%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? May 30 $103 −$6 -6%
Will MongoDB (MDB) beat quarterly earnings? May 28 $50 +$4 +7%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $112 +$104 +93%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $202 +$80 +40%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $202 +$131 +65%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BC.Game Esports (BO1) - CS Asia Champi May 20 $10 +$2 +23%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - CS Asia Championship May 20 $20 +$7 +34%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Liquid (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Gro May 20 $10 +$6 +55%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 64¢ $81 57m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 69¢ $89 1h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $50 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 62¢ $101 12h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 22h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 BUY 40¢ $25 24h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 39h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 39h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY 27¢ $36 42h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 47h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY 46¢ $51 47h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $30 2d
Will Yan Diomande stay at RB Leipzig? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will Yan Diomande stay at RB Leipzig? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Yan Diomande stay at RB Leipzig? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will Yan Diomande stay at RB Leipzig? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will Yan Diomande stay at RB Leipzig? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Yan Diomande stay at RB Leipzig? BUY Yes $1 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY 34¢ $25 2d
Will Yan Diomande stay at RB Leipzig? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will Yan Diomande stay at RB Leipzig? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $41 3d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY 30¢ $26 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $61 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 44¢ $10 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 3d
Will Yan Diomande stay at RB Leipzig? BUY Yes $0 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $324.53 · official $324.54 (match) · 392 history records