Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:31:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BC 0xbcb8…3058 sports 669 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 53d only
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$22,857 (-7%) realized −$22,849 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate63%420W / 248L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$496per market
Trades / day57.9pace
Fees−$2,838est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$438now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$763
7 days−$4,622
14 days−$4,412
30 days−$29,308
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$18,150
crypto 6% −$413
other 5% +$85
finance 4% −$4,305
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -15.8% -23.8% 53% 42% -34.0%
≤30d 339 -31.6% -38.2% 46% 39% -29.0%
≤90d 668 -2.7% -11.9% 63% 51% -15.7%
all 668 -2.7% -11.9% 63% 51% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 51% -15.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 36% -23.8%
15% -28.0% 23% -31.2%
20% -35.1% 14% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$511) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +26% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$114 vs −$286 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$438
Realized−$22,849
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses420 / 248
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$2,838
Open positions1
Markets (closed)668 / 669
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$496
Trades / day57.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 668 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $445 $438 −$8 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $432 +$68 +16%
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt Jun 19 $284 $0 +0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $577 +$116 +20%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 19 $1,104 −$111 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 19 $129 −$129 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $365 −$190 -52%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $464 −$203 -44%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $360 +$30 +8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $142 −$14 -10%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 +$38 +37%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $500 −$395 -79%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $9 +$1 +10%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 18 $796 −$18 -2%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $452 +$18 +4%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $403 +$95 +24%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $346 +$56 +16%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $317 +$21 +7%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $24 −$4 -15%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $309 +$20 +7%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $220 +$90 +41%
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 17 $199 +$23 +11%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $167 +$32 +19%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $160 +$5 +3%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $15 −$2 -11%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $183 +$12 +7%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $24 +$8 +34%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $126 +$33 +26%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 17 $24 −$9 -38%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $127 +$30 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$7 +68%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 +$9 +18%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 17 $99 +$14 +15%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $9 −$3 -32%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $23 +$3 +14%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $113 −$113 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$5 +52%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $137 −$14 -10%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $10 −$8 -80%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $106 +$33 +31%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $93 +$22 +24%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $98 −$9 -9%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $80 +$18 +22%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $58 +$21 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $446 26m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $499 32m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 86¢ $432 45m
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt SELL Guido Justo 36¢ $18 49m
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt BUY Guido Justo 26¢ $14 50m
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 70¢ $694 53m
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 57¢ $577 1h
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt SELL Nick Hardt 63¢ $24 1h
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt SELL Nick Hardt 78¢ $242 1h
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 77¢ $270 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Chicago White Sox 25¢ $42 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Chicago White Sox 25¢ $58 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Chicago White Sox 25¢ $2 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Chicago White Sox 25¢ $2 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Chicago White Sox 25¢ $2 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Chicago White Sox 25¢ $0 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Chicago White Sox 25¢ $787 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Chicago White Sox 28¢ $14 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Chicago White Sox 28¢ $14 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Chicago White Sox 28¢ $14 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Chicago White Sox 28¢ $8 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Chicago White Sox 28¢ $2 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Chicago White Sox 28¢ $41 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Chicago White Sox 28¢ $7 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 27¢ $1,104 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 23¢ $66 22h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 22¢ $0 22h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 22¢ $11 22h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 22¢ $1 22h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 22¢ $0 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $437.50 · official $437.50 (match) · 3500 history records